Statistics / Football / Spain. La Liga / Sevilla vs Valencia

Sevilla vs Valencia Statistics & Analysis

Sevilla Sevilla
Sep 11, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.32
0 1.04
xG Accuracy: 69%
Valencia Valencia
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sevilla Sevilla ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7042332

Closing Odds 1.92
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Sevilla win · Sevilla 1–0 Valencia
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.68 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Valencia (1X2) by about 6.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sevilla (1X2) 41.3 50.6 -9.3
Draw (1X2) 31.0 27.9 +3.0
Valencia (1X2) 27.7 21.4 +6.3
Over 2.5 goals 42.0 42.9 -0.9
Under 2.5 goals 58.0 57.1 +0.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.7% on Valencia (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.4%. The difference — about 6.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Sevilla (1X2) 1.98 1.92 +1.6
Draw (1X2) 3.35 3.48 -1.1
Valencia (1X2) 4.42 4.54 -0.6
Over 2.5 goals 2.35 2.26 +1.7
Under 2.5 goals 1.65 1.7 -1.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: La Liga
  • Fixture: Sevilla vs Valencia
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.3% · Draw 31.0% · Away 27.7%
  • xG (showing): Sevilla 1.32 — Valencia 1.04 (total xG ≈ 2.36)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 58.0% · Over 2.5 42.0%); BTTS No (Yes 49.1% · No 50.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.1% · No 50.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
La Liga La Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barcelona 5 5 0 0 15
2 Real Madrid 5 4 0 1 12
3 Alaves 5 3 1 1 10
4 Atletico Madrid 5 3 1 1 10
5 Sevilla 5 3 1 1 10
6 Deportivo La Coruna 5 2 3 0 9
7 Real Betis 4 3 0 1 9
8 Espanyol 5 2 1 2 7
9 Athletic Club 5 2 1 2 7
10 Racing Santander 5 2 1 2 7
11 Osasuna 5 2 1 2 7
12 Real Sociedad 6 2 1 3 7
13 Levante 5 1 2 2 5
14 Getafe 5 1 2 2 5
15 Celta Vigo 6 0 4 2 4
16 Rayo Vallecano 5 1 1 3 4
17 Malaga 5 0 3 2 3
18 Villarreal 4 0 2 2 2
19 Elche 5 0 2 3 2
20 Valencia 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona 5 21 4 +17 15
2 Real Madrid 5 14 4 +10 12
3 Alaves 5 11 5 +6 10
4 Atletico Madrid 5 10 6 +4 10
5 Deportivo La Coruna 5 9 6 +3 9
6 Racing Santander 5 9 9 0 7
7 Espanyol 5 8 5 +3 7
8 Sevilla 5 8 6 +2 10
9 Rayo Vallecano 5 8 14 -6 4
10 Athletic Club 5 7 6 +1 7
11 Levante 5 7 9 -2 5
12 Villarreal 4 6 8 -2 2
13 Real Sociedad 6 6 11 -5 7
14 Elche 5 6 13 -7 2
15 Real Betis 4 5 5 0 9
16 Osasuna 5 5 8 -3 7
17 Getafe 5 3 6 -3 5
18 Celta Vigo 6 3 6 -3 4
19 Malaga 5 2 8 -6 3
20 Valencia 5 1 10 -9 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona 5 14.9 2.7 +12.2 15
2 Real Madrid 5 5.7 1.8 +3.9 12
3 Osasuna 5 6.7 3.3 +3.4 7
4 Alaves 5 5.8 3.6 +2.2 10
5 Racing Santander 5 4.5 3.1 +1.4 7
6 Villarreal 4 7.6 7.0 +0.6 2
7 Espanyol 5 2.8 2.2 +0.6 7
8 Real Betis 4 7.2 7.4 -0.2 9
9 Levante 5 5.4 5.7 -0.3 5
10 Sevilla 5 3.7 4.2 -0.5 10
11 Malaga 5 4.3 5.1 -0.8 3
12 Athletic Club 5 4.1 4.9 -0.8 7
13 Real Sociedad 6 3.6 5.0 -1.4 7
14 Deportivo La Coruna 5 2.9 4.7 -1.8 9
15 Atletico Madrid 5 2.5 4.7 -2.2 10
16 Elche 5 3.2 6.0 -2.8 2
17 Getafe 5 2.8 5.6 -2.8 5
18 Valencia 5 3.7 6.9 -3.2 1
19 Rayo Vallecano 5 3.5 7.0 -3.5 4
20 Celta Vigo 6 2.4 6.5 -4.1 4
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