Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División / Almeria vs Leganes

Almeria vs Leganes Statistics & Analysis

Almeria Almeria
Oct 11, 2026 - 14:15
3 1.50
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 47%
Leganes Leganes
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Almeria Almeria ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13222073

Closing Odds 1.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Almeria win · Almeria 3–0 Leganes
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.14 percentage points on Almeria (1X2) between PRE10 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Leganes (1X2) by about 9.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Almeria (1X2) 44.4 55.8 -11.4
Draw (1X2) 27.9 25.7 +2.2
Leganes (1X2) 27.7 18.5 +9.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.7% on Leganes (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.5%. The difference — about 9.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 → bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Almeria (1X2) 1.71 1.66 +1.1
Draw (1X2) 3.5 3.6 -1.0
Leganes (1X2) 5.0 5.0 -0.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Almeria vs Leganes
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 14:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.4% · Draw 27.9% · Away 27.7%
  • xG (showing): Almeria 1.5 — Leganes 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.73)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.6% · Implied: 46.2% · Probability edge: +2.4 pts · Est. EV: +5.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eibar 8 7 0 1 21
2 Almeria 9 7 0 2 21
3 Castellón 9 6 2 1 20
4 Mallorca 9 5 2 2 17
5 Sabadell 9 4 4 1 16
6 Sporting Gijon 9 5 1 3 16
7 Girona 8 4 2 2 14
8 Burgos 8 4 2 2 14
9 Granada CF 8 3 2 3 11
10 Oviedo 8 3 2 3 11
11 Celta de Vigo II 9 3 2 4 11
12 Eldense 9 3 2 4 11
13 Tenerife 8 3 2 3 11
14 Las Palmas 9 3 2 4 11
15 Leganes 9 3 2 4 11
16 FC Andorra 9 3 1 5 10
17 Valladolid 8 2 3 3 9
18 Cordoba 9 3 0 6 9
19 Real Sociedad II 9 2 2 5 8
20 Cadiz 9 1 4 4 7
21 AD Ceuta FC 9 1 2 6 5
22 Albacete 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Eibar 8 18 7 +11 21
2 Almeria 9 16 5 +11 21
3 Castellón 9 15 4 +11 20
4 Girona 8 14 8 +6 14
5 Celta de Vigo II 9 14 15 -1 11
6 Cordoba 9 14 20 -6 9
7 Granada CF 8 13 13 0 11
8 FC Andorra 9 13 15 -2 10
9 Las Palmas 9 13 16 -3 11
10 Burgos 8 12 9 +3 14
11 Real Sociedad II 9 12 17 -5 8
12 Mallorca 9 11 4 +7 17
13 Cadiz 9 11 11 0 7
14 Sabadell 9 10 7 +3 16
15 Eldense 9 10 11 -1 11
16 Tenerife 8 10 12 -2 11
17 Sporting Gijon 9 9 8 +1 16
18 Oviedo 8 8 8 0 11
19 Valladolid 8 8 11 -3 9
20 AD Ceuta FC 9 8 20 -12 5
21 Leganes 9 6 14 -8 11
22 Albacete 8 5 15 -10 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Andorra 9 2.6 0.7 +1.9 10
2 Eldense 9 2.9 1.4 +1.5 11
3 Cadiz 9 2.2 1.3 +0.9 7
4 Almeria 9 1.2 0.4 +0.8 21
5 Sabadell 9 1.4 0.9 +0.5 16
6 Mallorca 9 0.9 0.5 +0.4 17
7 Sporting Gijon 9 0.7 0.6 +0.1 16
8 Real Sociedad II 9 1.9 2.0 -0.1 8
9 Las Palmas 9 0.5 0.9 -0.4 11
10 AD Ceuta FC 9 0.9 1.4 -0.5 5
11 Leganes 9 0.4 1.2 -0.8 11
12 Celta de Vigo II 9 2.6 3.5 -0.9 11
13 Cordoba 9 1.4 2.9 -1.5 9
14 Castellón 9 0.7 2.6 -1.9 20
15 Eibar 8 — — — 21
16 Girona 8 — — — 14
17 Burgos 8 — — — 14
18 Granada CF 8 — — — 11
19 Oviedo 8 — — — 11
20 Tenerife 8 — — — 11
21 Valladolid 8 — — — 9
22 Albacete 8 — — — 1
Segunda División Spain. Segunda División Predictions