Statistics / Football / Spain. Segunda División / Almeria vs Burgos

Almeria vs Burgos Statistics & Analysis

Almeria Almeria
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:15
2 1.07
1 1.17
xG Accuracy: 74%
Burgos Burgos
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Almeria Almeria ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11247529

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Almeria win · Almeria 2–1 Burgos
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Almeria vs Burgos
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.3% · Draw 31.6% · Away 33.1%
  • xG (showing): Almeria 1.07 — Burgos 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.24)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Eibar 8 7 0 1 21
2 Castellón 7 6 1 0 19
3 Almeria 8 6 0 2 18
4 Burgos 8 4 2 2 14
5 Girona 7 4 1 2 13
6 Mallorca 7 4 1 2 13
7 Sabadell 7 3 3 1 12
8 Oviedo 8 3 2 3 11
9 Tenerife 7 3 2 2 11
10 Leganes 8 3 2 3 11
11 Las Palmas 7 3 1 3 10
12 Sporting Gijon 7 3 1 3 10
13 Granada CF 7 2 2 3 8
14 Real Sociedad II 7 2 2 3 8
15 Eldense 8 2 2 4 8
16 Celta de Vigo II 7 2 2 3 8
17 Valladolid 7 2 2 3 8
18 Cadiz 8 1 4 3 7
19 FC Andorra 7 2 0 5 6
20 Cordoba 7 2 0 5 6
21 AD Ceuta FC 7 1 1 5 4
22 Albacete 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Eibar 8 18 7 +11 21
2 Castellón 7 14 2 +12 19
3 Girona 7 14 8 +6 13
4 Almeria 8 13 5 +8 18
5 Burgos 8 12 9 +3 14
6 FC Andorra 7 12 15 -3 6
7 Cadiz 8 11 10 +1 7
8 Las Palmas 7 10 11 -1 10
9 Granada CF 7 10 11 -1 8
10 Cordoba 7 10 16 -6 6
11 Real Sociedad II 7 9 10 -1 8
12 Mallorca 7 8 3 +5 13
13 Sabadell 7 8 6 +2 12
14 Oviedo 8 8 8 0 11
15 Tenerife 7 8 9 -1 11
16 Eldense 8 8 10 -2 8
17 Celta de Vigo II 7 8 11 -3 8
18 Valladolid 7 6 9 -3 8
19 Leganes 8 6 11 -5 11
20 AD Ceuta FC 7 6 17 -11 4
21 Sporting Gijon 7 5 6 -1 10
22 Albacete 8 5 15 -10 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cadiz 8 1.6 0.6 +1.0 7
2 Celta de Vigo II 7 0.6 1.6 -1.0 8
3 Eibar 8 — — — 21
4 Castellón 7 — — — 19
5 Almeria 8 — — — 18
6 Burgos 8 — — — 14
7 Girona 7 — — — 13
8 Mallorca 7 — — — 13
9 Sabadell 7 — — — 12
10 Oviedo 8 — — — 11
11 Tenerife 7 — — — 11
12 Leganes 8 — — — 11
13 Las Palmas 7 — — — 10
14 Sporting Gijon 7 — — — 10
15 Granada CF 7 — — — 8
16 Real Sociedad II 7 — — — 8
17 Eldense 8 — — — 8
18 Valladolid 7 — — — 8
19 FC Andorra 7 — — — 6
20 Cordoba 7 — — — 6
21 AD Ceuta FC 7 — — — 4
22 Albacete 8 — — — 1
Segunda División Spain. Segunda División Predictions