Statistics / Football / Austria. 2. Liga / First Vienna vs SKU Amstetten

First Vienna vs SKU Amstetten Statistics & Analysis

First Vienna First Vienna
Aug 28, 2026 - 16:30
1 1.37
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 64%
SKU Amstetten SKU Amstetten
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 First Vienna First Vienna ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 02:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4931388

Closing Odds 2.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result First Vienna win · First Vienna 1–0 SKU Amstetten
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), SKU Amstetten (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 8.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
First Vienna (1X2) 38.5 45.1 -6.7
Draw (1X2) 29.6 25.1 +4.5
SKU Amstetten (1X2) 31.9 29.8 +2.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 56.9 -8.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 43.1 +8.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 43.1%. The difference — about 8.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
First Vienna (1X2) 2.11 2.11 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.79 3.79 0.0
SKU Amstetten (1X2) 3.2 3.2 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.68 1.68 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.22 2.22 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 2. Liga
  • Fixture: First Vienna vs SKU Amstetten
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): First Vienna 1.37 — SKU Amstetten 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.8% · Probability edge: +8.1 pts · Est. EV: +15.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
2. Liga 2. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC BW Linz 5 4 0 1 12
2 FC Liefering 5 3 1 1 10
3 First Vienna 5 3 1 1 10
4 Floridsdorfer AC 5 3 1 1 10
5 Austria Vienna (Am) 5 3 0 2 9
6 Wacker Innsbruck 5 3 0 2 9
7 Austria Salzburg 5 3 0 2 9
8 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 5 2 1 2 7
9 SKU Amstetten 5 1 3 1 6
10 Sturm Graz II 5 2 0 3 6
11 Admira Wacker 5 2 0 3 6
12 Rapid Wien II 5 2 0 3 6
13 Voitsberg 5 1 2 2 5
14 WSPG Wels 5 1 1 3 4
15 SKN ST. Polten 5 1 0 4 3
16 SV Kapfenberg 5 1 0 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC BW Linz 5 13 3 +10 12
2 FC Liefering 5 13 8 +5 10
3 Austria Salzburg 5 10 7 +3 9
4 Sturm Graz II 5 10 13 -3 6
5 First Vienna 5 9 6 +3 10
6 Floridsdorfer AC 5 9 6 +3 10
7 Wacker Innsbruck 5 7 5 +2 9
8 Austria Vienna (Am) 5 7 6 +1 9
9 Voitsberg 5 7 10 -3 5
10 Admira Wacker 5 6 5 +1 6
11 SKU Amstetten 5 6 6 0 6
12 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 5 6 10 -4 7
13 WSPG Wels 5 6 10 -4 4
14 Rapid Wien II 5 6 11 -5 6
15 SV Kapfenberg 5 6 12 -6 3
16 SKN ST. Polten 5 1 4 -3 3
2. Liga Austria. 2. Liga Predictions