Predictions / Football / Austria. 2. Liga / Sturm Graz II vs Wacker Innsbruck

Prediction Audit: Sturm Graz II vs Wacker Innsbruck Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II
Sep 19, 2026 - 13:30
2 1.26
2 1.34
xG Accuracy: 68%
Wacker Innsbruck Wacker Innsbruck

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Wacker Innsbruck at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Wacker Innsbruck Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Sturm Graz II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sturm Graz II -6.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sturm Graz II 33.3% 40.0% -6.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.6% +5.0 pp Model Higher
Wacker Innsbruck 37.1% 35.4% +1.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Sturm Graz II's win probability at 40.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Sturm Graz II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Wacker Innsbruck by 6.7 percentage points (43.8% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sturm Graz II 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Wacker Innsbruck 37.0%
    • xG · Sturm Graz II 1.26 — Wacker Innsbruck 1.34
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 13:06 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sturm Graz II 2.38 · Draw 3.87 · Wacker Innsbruck 2.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Sturm Graz II 40.0% · Draw 24.6% · Wacker Innsbruck 35.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sturm Graz II 2.38 · Draw 3.87 · Wacker Innsbruck 2.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Sturm Graz II 40.0% · Draw 24.6% · Wacker Innsbruck 35.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8677301

Closing Odds 2.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sturm Graz II 2–2 Wacker Innsbruck
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 2. Liga
  • Fixture: Sturm Graz II vs Wacker Innsbruck
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Sturm Graz II 1.26 — Wacker Innsbruck 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.5% · Probability edge: +10.3 pts · Est. EV: +20.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 2. Liga Matches Track Sturm Graz II Next Match Prediction Track Wacker Innsbruck Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Sturm Graz II & Wacker Innsbruck!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
2. Liga 2. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC BW Linz 7 6 0 1 18
2 First Vienna 7 5 1 1 16
3 Floridsdorfer AC 7 4 1 2 13
4 SKU Amstetten 7 3 3 1 12
5 Austria Vienna (Am) 7 4 0 3 12
6 Wacker Innsbruck 7 3 2 2 11
7 Austria Salzburg 7 3 1 3 10
8 FC Liefering 7 3 1 3 10
9 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 7 3 1 3 10
10 SKN ST. Polten 7 3 0 4 9
11 Admira Wacker 7 3 0 4 9
12 Voitsberg 7 2 3 2 9
13 Sturm Graz II 7 2 2 3 8
14 Rapid Wien II 7 2 0 5 6
15 WSPG Wels 7 1 1 5 4
16 SV Kapfenberg 7 1 0 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC BW Linz 7 20 4 +16 18
2 Sturm Graz II 7 15 18 -3 8
3 First Vienna 7 14 7 +7 16
4 SKU Amstetten 7 14 11 +3 12
5 Austria Salzburg 7 14 12 +2 10
6 FC Liefering 7 14 15 -1 10
7 Floridsdorfer AC 7 13 10 +3 13
8 Austria Vienna (Am) 7 13 11 +2 12
9 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 7 11 12 -1 10
10 Wacker Innsbruck 7 10 8 +2 11
11 Voitsberg 7 10 12 -2 9
12 SV Kapfenberg 7 9 17 -8 3
13 WSPG Wels 7 8 17 -9 4
14 Admira Wacker 7 7 8 -1 9
15 Rapid Wien II 7 7 17 -10 6
16 SKN ST. Polten 7 6 6 0 9