Statistics / Football / England. League One / Leyton Orient vs Stevenage

Leyton Orient vs Stevenage Statistics & Analysis

Leyton Orient Leyton Orient
Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.21
0 1.17
xG Accuracy: 68%
Stevenage Stevenage
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8682643

Closing Odds 2.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Leyton Orient win · Leyton Orient 1–0 Stevenage
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Leyton Orient (1X2) 35.8 37.9 -2.1
Draw (1X2) 30.9 29.4 +1.5
Stevenage (1X2) 33.3 32.7 +0.7
Over 2.5 goals 42.5 43.1 -0.6
Under 2.5 goals 57.5 56.9 +0.6

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Leyton Orient (1X2) 2.54 2.54 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.28 3.28 0.0
Stevenage (1X2) 2.95 2.95 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.23 2.23 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.69 1.69 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: League One
  • Fixture: Leyton Orient vs Stevenage
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.8% · Draw 30.9% · Away 33.3%
  • xG (showing): Leyton Orient 1.21 — Stevenage 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.38)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
League One League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bradford 7 5 0 2 15
2 Sheffield Wednesday 7 4 2 1 14
3 Plymouth 7 4 1 2 13
4 Huddersfield 7 3 3 1 12
5 Cambridge United 7 3 3 1 12
6 Oxford United 6 3 2 1 11
7 AFC Wimbledon 7 3 2 2 11
8 Reading 6 3 1 2 10
9 Stockport County 7 3 1 3 10
10 Leyton Orient 7 3 1 3 10
11 Stevenage 7 2 3 2 9
12 Burton Albion 7 2 3 2 9
13 Leicester 7 2 3 2 9
14 Wycombe 7 2 3 2 9
15 Blackpool 7 2 2 3 8
16 Luton 7 2 2 3 8
17 Mansfield Town 7 2 2 3 8
18 Barnsley 7 2 2 3 8
19 Bromley 7 2 2 3 8
20 Notts County 7 1 4 2 7
21 Doncaster 7 1 3 3 6
22 Milton Keynes Dons 7 0 6 1 6
23 Peterborough 7 1 2 4 5
24 Wigan 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Stockport County 7 16 10 +6 10
2 Reading 6 14 7 +7 10
3 Plymouth 7 14 10 +4 13
4 Sheffield Wednesday 7 13 6 +7 14
5 Oxford United 6 13 7 +6 11
6 Leyton Orient 7 13 9 +4 10
7 Blackpool 7 13 13 0 8
8 Cambridge United 7 12 10 +2 12
9 Burton Albion 7 12 12 0 9
10 Luton 7 12 14 -2 8
11 Huddersfield 7 11 6 +5 12
12 Stevenage 7 11 8 +3 9
13 Wycombe 7 11 14 -3 9
14 Mansfield Town 7 10 13 -3 8
15 Leicester 7 9 11 -2 9
16 Doncaster 7 8 9 -1 6
17 Milton Keynes Dons 7 8 10 -2 6
18 Bromley 7 8 18 -10 8
19 Bradford 7 7 4 +3 15
20 Notts County 7 7 9 -2 7
21 Barnsley 7 7 12 -5 8
22 AFC Wimbledon 7 5 7 -2 11
23 Wigan 7 5 12 -7 4
24 Peterborough 7 4 12 -8 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Sheffield Wednesday 7 8.6 3.5 +5.1 14
2 Wigan 7 6.9 3.6 +3.3 4
3 Notts County 7 5.3 2.8 +2.5 7
4 Reading 6 5.3 3.3 +2.0 10
5 Huddersfield 7 4.7 2.7 +2.0 12
6 Stockport County 7 7.0 5.5 +1.5 10
7 Luton 7 6.2 4.7 +1.5 8
8 Doncaster 7 3.1 2.0 +1.1 6
9 Blackpool 7 8.7 8.2 +0.5 8
10 Wycombe 7 4.4 4.1 +0.3 9
11 Barnsley 7 5.6 5.5 +0.1 8
12 Leicester 7 3.4 3.5 -0.1 9
13 Oxford United 6 2.4 2.8 -0.4 11
14 Bradford 7 3.0 3.6 -0.6 15
15 Stevenage 7 2.0 2.8 -0.8 9
16 Cambridge United 7 3.6 4.5 -0.9 12
17 Peterborough 7 4.3 5.6 -1.3 5
18 Plymouth 7 3.4 4.7 -1.3 13
19 Mansfield Town 7 5.2 6.6 -1.4 8
20 Milton Keynes Dons 7 3.7 5.2 -1.5 6
21 Burton Albion 7 2.7 5.3 -2.6 9
22 AFC Wimbledon 7 2.9 5.7 -2.8 11
23 Leyton Orient 7 3.1 6.0 -2.9 10
24 Bromley 7 3.1 6.5 -3.4 8
League One England. League One Predictions