Statistics / Football / England. Championship / QPR vs Derby

QPR vs Derby Statistics & Analysis

QPR QPR
Oct 14, 2026 - 18:45
4 1.67
1 0.91
xG Accuracy: 51%
Derby Derby
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 QPR QPR ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 08, 2026 · 02:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13901709

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result QPR win · QPR 4–1 Derby
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Championship
  • Fixture: QPR vs Derby
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-14 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 54.1% · Draw 26.8% · Away 19.0%
  • xG (showing): QPR 1.67 — Derby 0.91 (total xG ≈ 2.58)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 52.3% · Implied: 49.8% · Probability edge: +2.5 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.0% · No 50.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 18, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Championship Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Swansea 11 7 2 2 23
2 West Ham 11 6 4 1 22
3 Middlesbrough 11 6 4 1 22
4 Birmingham 11 5 5 1 20
5 West Brom 11 6 2 3 20
6 Stoke City 11 6 1 4 19
7 Southampton 11 6 3 2 17
8 Wolves 10 5 2 3 17
9 QPR 11 4 5 2 17
10 Blackburn 11 4 3 4 15
11 Sheffield Utd 11 4 3 4 15
12 Millwall 11 4 3 4 15
13 Portsmouth 10 4 2 4 14
14 Wrexham 11 3 5 3 14
15 Bolton 11 4 2 5 14
16 Bristol City 11 4 2 5 14
17 Charlton 11 3 5 3 14
18 Lincoln 11 3 3 5 12
19 Cardiff 11 2 5 4 11
20 Watford 11 3 2 6 11
21 Norwich 11 3 0 8 9
22 Burnley 11 1 5 5 8
23 Derby 11 1 3 7 6
24 Preston 11 1 1 9 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 West Ham 11 30 12 +18 22
2 Middlesbrough 11 22 16 +6 22
3 Southampton 11 21 10 +11 17
4 Birmingham 11 20 11 +9 20
5 Wolves 10 18 15 +3 17
6 Stoke City 11 18 16 +2 19
7 Cardiff 11 18 17 +1 11
8 Millwall 11 18 18 0 15
9 Blackburn 11 17 16 +1 15
10 Norwich 11 17 21 -4 9
11 Swansea 11 16 8 +8 23
12 Burnley 11 16 21 -5 8
13 West Brom 11 15 12 +3 20
14 QPR 11 15 12 +3 17
15 Sheffield Utd 11 15 14 +1 15
16 Wrexham 11 15 16 -1 14
17 Bolton 11 15 18 -3 14
18 Portsmouth 10 13 13 0 14
19 Bristol City 11 12 15 -3 14
20 Charlton 11 10 15 -5 14
21 Watford 11 10 19 -9 11
22 Lincoln 11 9 19 -10 12
23 Derby 11 9 20 -11 6
24 Preston 11 9 24 -15 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Middlesbrough 11 15.1 7.5 +7.6 22
2 Southampton 11 12.6 5.9 +6.7 17
3 Wolves 10 13.0 7.5 +5.5 17
4 QPR 11 13.0 8.1 +4.9 17
5 Birmingham 11 13.7 9.0 +4.7 20
6 West Ham 11 10.8 6.7 +4.1 22
7 Swansea 11 9.7 5.9 +3.8 23
8 Wrexham 11 9.1 5.8 +3.3 14
9 Millwall 11 12.7 10.5 +2.2 15
10 Portsmouth 10 8.6 8.5 +0.1 14
11 Bolton 11 8.6 8.7 -0.1 14
12 Sheffield Utd 11 7.3 7.5 -0.2 15
13 West Brom 11 11.2 11.8 -0.6 20
14 Cardiff 11 11.4 12.8 -1.4 11
15 Burnley 11 8.8 10.8 -2.0 8
16 Bristol City 11 8.2 10.3 -2.1 14
17 Norwich 11 9.1 12.3 -3.2 9
18 Watford 11 7.6 10.8 -3.2 11
19 Charlton 11 8.8 12.1 -3.3 14
20 Derby 11 7.1 10.8 -3.7 6
21 Preston 11 4.3 8.9 -4.6 4
22 Lincoln 11 7.0 12.2 -5.2 12
23 Blackburn 11 5.6 11.4 -5.8 15
24 Stoke City 11 4.2 12.2 -8.0 19
Championship England. Championship Predictions