Derby vs Wrexham Statistics & Analysis

Derby

Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.13

1 1.37

xG Accuracy: 87%

Wrexham

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Wrexham Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13225561

Closing Odds 2.75

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Derby 1–1 Wrexham

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Wrexham (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Wrexham (1X2) by about 2.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Derby (1X2)	29.6	33.8	-4.2
Draw (1X2)	29.9	28.2	+1.7
Wrexham (1X2)	40.5	38.0	+2.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 40.5% on Wrexham (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 38.0%. The difference — about 2.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: stake com

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
Derby (1X2)	2.75	2.75
Draw (1X2)	3.3	3.3
Wrexham (1X2)	2.45	2.45

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Championship
Fixture: Derby vs Wrexham
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.9% · Away 40.5%
xG (showing): Derby 1.13 — Wrexham 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.5)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 54.4% · Implied: 49.9% · Probability edge: +4.5 pts · Est. EV: +6.1%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Championship — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Swansea	10	7	2	1	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	6	3	1	21
3	West Ham	10	5	4	1	19
4	Birmingham	10	4	5	1	17
5	QPR	10	4	5	1	17
6	West Brom	10	5	2	3	17
7	Southampton	10	6	2	2	16
8	Stoke City	10	5	1	4	16
9	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	15
10	Wolves	9	4	2	3	14
11	Millwall	10	4	2	4	14
12	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	14
13	Charlton	10	3	5	2	14
14	Bolton	10	4	1	5	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	3	3	4	12
16	Portsmouth	9	3	2	4	11
17	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	11
18	Lincoln	10	3	2	5	11
19	Cardiff	10	2	4	4	10
20	Norwich	10	3	0	7	9
21	Burnley	10	1	5	4	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	6	8
23	Derby	10	1	3	6	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	8	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	West Ham	10	29	12	+17	19
2	Southampton	10	21	10	+11	16
3	Middlesbrough	10	20	14	+6	21
4	Birmingham	10	17	11	+6	17
5	Stoke City	10	17	16	+1	16
6	Norwich	10	17	20	-3	9
7	Swansea	10	16	7	+9	23
8	Wolves	9	16	14	+2	14
9	Cardiff	10	16	15	+1	10
10	Millwall	10	16	16	0	14
11	QPR	10	15	9	+6	17
12	Blackburn	10	15	13	+2	15
13	Bolton	10	15	18	-3	13
14	Burnley	10	15	19	-4	8
15	Sheffield Utd	10	14	14	0	12
16	West Brom	10	12	10	+2	17
17	Portsmouth	9	12	13	-1	11
18	Bristol City	10	12	14	-2	14
19	Wrexham	10	11	15	-4	11
20	Charlton	10	10	13	-3	14
21	Derby	10	9	19	-10	6
22	Watford	10	8	19	-11	8
23	Preston	10	8	20	-12	4
24	Lincoln	10	7	17	-10	11

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Middlesbrough	10	15.1	7.5	+7.6	21
2	Southampton	10	12.6	5.9	+6.7	16
3	Wolves	9	12.8	7.4	+5.4	14
4	QPR	10	13.0	8.1	+4.9	17
5	Birmingham	10	13.7	9.0	+4.7	17
6	West Ham	10	10.8	6.7	+4.1	19
7	Swansea	10	9.7	5.9	+3.8	23
8	Wrexham	10	9.1	5.8	+3.3	11
9	Millwall	10	12.7	10.5	+2.2	14
10	Portsmouth	9	8.6	8.5	+0.1	11
11	Bolton	10	8.6	8.7	-0.1	13
12	Sheffield Utd	10	7.3	7.5	-0.2	12
13	West Brom	10	11.2	11.8	-0.6	17
14	Cardiff	10	11.4	12.8	-1.4	10
15	Burnley	10	8.8	10.6	-1.8	8
16	Bristol City	10	8.2	10.3	-2.1	14
17	Norwich	10	9.1	12.3	-3.2	9
18	Watford	10	7.6	10.8	-3.2	8
19	Charlton	10	8.8	12.1	-3.3	14
20	Derby	10	7.1	10.8	-3.7	6
21	Preston	10	4.3	8.9	-4.6	4
22	Lincoln	10	7.0	12.2	-5.2	11
23	Blackburn	10	5.6	11.4	-5.8	15
24	Stoke City	10	4.2	12.2	-8.0	16