Derby vs Birmingham Statistics & Analysis

Derby

Sep 12, 2026 - 11:30

1 1.24

2 1.50

xG Accuracy: 82%

Birmingham

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Birmingham Birmingham ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7424311

Closing Odds 3.61

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Birmingham win · Derby 1–2 Birmingham

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Derby (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 5.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Derby (1X2)	29.9	26.8	+3.1
Draw (1X2)	28.5	28.9	-0.4
Birmingham (1X2)	41.7	44.4	-2.7
Over 2.5 goals	51.6	46.5	+5.1
Under 2.5 goals	48.4	53.5	-5.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.6% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.5%. The difference — about 5.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Derby (1X2)	3.61	3.61
Draw (1X2)	3.35	3.35
Birmingham (1X2)	2.18	2.18
Over 2.5 goals	2.08	2.08
Under 2.5 goals	1.81	1.81

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Championship
Fixture: Derby vs Birmingham
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.8% · Draw 28.5% · Away 41.7%
xG (showing): Derby 1.24 — Birmingham 1.5 (total xG ≈ 2.74)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 51.6% · Implied: 46.8% · Probability edge: +4.8 pts · Est. EV: +7.8%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Championship — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	West Ham	7	4	2	1	14
2	Swansea	7	4	2	1	14
3	Middlesbrough	7	4	2	1	14
4	West Brom	7	4	2	1	14
5	QPR	7	3	3	1	12
6	Charlton	7	3	3	1	12
7	Wolves	6	3	2	1	11
8	Lincoln	7	3	2	2	11
9	Southampton	7	4	2	1	10
10	Birmingham	7	2	4	1	10
11	Millwall	7	3	1	3	10
12	Stoke City	7	3	1	3	10
13	Bristol City	7	3	1	3	10
14	Norwich	7	3	0	4	9
15	Sheffield Utd	7	2	3	2	9
16	Blackburn	7	2	2	3	8
17	Watford	7	2	2	3	8
18	Portsmouth	6	2	1	3	7
19	Wrexham	7	1	4	2	7
20	Bolton	7	2	1	4	7
21	Cardiff	7	0	4	3	4
22	Derby	7	1	1	5	4
23	Preston	7	1	0	6	3
24	Burnley	7	0	3	4	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	West Ham	7	20	9	+11	14
2	Southampton	7	18	8	+10	10
3	Middlesbrough	7	14	10	+4	14
4	Wolves	6	14	10	+4	11
5	Millwall	7	13	13	0	10
6	Norwich	7	13	13	0	9
7	Swansea	7	11	5	+6	14
8	Stoke City	7	11	11	0	10
9	West Brom	7	10	7	+3	14
10	Birmingham	7	10	9	+1	10
11	Blackburn	7	10	10	0	8
12	Bristol City	7	10	12	-2	10
13	QPR	7	8	5	+3	12
14	Sheffield Utd	7	8	9	-1	9
15	Burnley	7	8	16	-8	3
16	Portsmouth	6	7	8	-1	7
17	Watford	7	7	9	-2	8
18	Wrexham	7	7	11	-4	7
19	Cardiff	7	7	11	-4	4
20	Bolton	7	7	12	-5	7
21	Lincoln	7	6	6	0	11
22	Charlton	7	6	7	-1	12
23	Derby	7	6	13	-7	4
24	Preston	7	6	13	-7	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Southampton	7	7.2	2.6	+4.6	10
2	Wolves	6	8.2	3.8	+4.4	11
3	QPR	7	8.5	4.2	+4.3	12
4	Middlesbrough	7	7.3	3.6	+3.7	14
5	Wrexham	7	5.4	3.5	+1.9	7
6	Swansea	7	4.6	3.0	+1.6	14
7	Birmingham	7	7.5	6.2	+1.3	10
8	Millwall	7	6.9	5.7	+1.2	10
9	West Ham	7	4.9	4.0	+0.9	14
10	Norwich	7	6.8	6.6	+0.2	9
11	Sheffield Utd	7	3.6	3.6	0.0	9
12	Portsmouth	6	4.5	4.9	-0.4	7
13	Lincoln	7	4.0	4.9	-0.9	11
14	Cardiff	7	5.8	6.8	-1.0	4
15	Bolton	7	2.8	3.8	-1.0	7
16	Preston	7	2.4	3.5	-1.1	3
17	Burnley	7	4.8	6.0	-1.2	3
18	Watford	7	2.6	4.0	-1.4	8
19	Blackburn	7	2.8	4.7	-1.9	8
20	Derby	7	4.5	6.8	-2.3	4
21	West Brom	7	5.4	8.0	-2.6	14
22	Charlton	7	3.4	6.5	-3.1	12
23	Stoke City	7	2.2	5.6	-3.4	10
24	Bristol City	7	2.5	6.4	-3.9	10