Chelsea vs Bournemouth Statistics & Analysis

Chelsea

Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00

5 1.72

1 1.59

xG Accuracy: 34%

Bournemouth

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Chelsea Chelsea ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13223755

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Chelsea win · Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.6% · Draw 25.3% · Away 29.1%
xG (showing): Chelsea 1.72 — Bournemouth 1.59 (total xG ≈ 3.31)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 66.6% · Implied: 61.1% · Probability edge: +5.5 pts · Est. EV: +4.6%
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Brighton	5	16	5	+11	10
2	Manchester City	5	13	5	+8	15
3	Brentford	5	10	4	+6	9
4	Chelsea	5	10	12	-2	7
5	Newcastle	5	9	9	0	8
6	Arsenal	5	8	4	+4	12
7	Manchester United	5	8	8	0	5
8	Leeds	5	7	3	+4	9
9	Liverpool	5	7	4	+3	9
10	Ipswich	5	7	11	-4	6
11	Everton	5	6	3	+3	9
12	Hull City	5	6	4	+2	8
13	Bournemouth	5	6	8	-2	3
14	Sunderland	5	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	6	11	-5	4
16	Fulham	5	5	8	-3	2
17	Nottingham Forest	5	4	5	-1	5
18	Aston Villa	5	4	9	-5	4
19	Tottenham	5	2	8	-6	2
20	Coventry	5	1	10	-9	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Arsenal	5	7.6	1.7	+5.9	12
2	Brentford	5	6.8	3.8	+3.0	9
3	Manchester City	5	5.1	2.1	+3.0	15
4	Brighton	5	6.4	4.0	+2.4	10
5	Manchester United	5	8.0	6.0	+2.0	5
6	Nottingham Forest	5	6.3	4.5	+1.8	5
7	Liverpool	5	4.8	5.0	-0.2	9
8	Chelsea	5	6.2	6.5	-0.3	7
9	Sunderland	5	3.2	3.7	-0.5	4
10	Everton	5	5.6	6.2	-0.6	9
11	Fulham	5	4.0	4.7	-0.7	2
12	Newcastle	5	4.0	4.8	-0.8	8
13	Bournemouth	5	4.3	5.2	-0.9	3
14	Crystal Palace	5	5.0	6.0	-1.0	4
15	Coventry	5	3.1	4.4	-1.3	3
16	Hull City	5	3.3	4.8	-1.5	8
17	Ipswich	5	5.0	7.2	-2.2	6
18	Leeds	5	2.7	4.9	-2.2	9
19	Tottenham	5	3.2	5.6	-2.4	2
20	Aston Villa	5	2.5	6.0	-3.5	4