Genk W vs OH Leuven W Statistics & Analysis

Genk W

Sep 12, 2026 - 11:30

0 1.09

0 1.51

xG Accuracy: 49%

OH Leuven W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 OH Leuven W Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7424223

Closing Odds 1.18

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Genk W 0–0 OH Leuven W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Genk W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Genk W (1X2) by about 16.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Genk W (1X2)	25.8	9.3	+16.5
Draw (1X2)	28.9	14.5	+14.4
OH Leuven W (1X2)	45.3	76.2	-30.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	64.6	-16.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	35.4	+16.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 25.8% on Genk W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 9.3%. The difference — about 16.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Genk W (1X2)	9.22	9.66	-0.3
Draw (1X2)	6.01	6.19	-0.2
OH Leuven W (1X2)	1.17	1.18	+0.5
Over 2.5 goals	1.41	1.42	+0.0
Under 2.5 goals	2.57	2.59	-0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours OH Leuven W; market prices OH Leuven W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Genk W 1.09 xG vs OH Leuven W 1.51 → OH Leuven W 45.3%
Market: OH Leuven W ~76.2% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Anderlecht W	2	2	0	0	6
2	Club Brugge W	2	2	0	0	6
3	OH Leuven W	2	1	1	0	4
4	RAAL La Louviere W	2	1	0	1	3
5	Standard Liege W	2	1	0	1	3
6	Genk W	2	0	1	1	1
7	Zulte-Waregem W	2	0	0	2	0
8	Gent W	2	0	0	2	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Anderlecht W	2	6	0	+6	6
2	OH Leuven W	2	6	1	+5	4
3	Club Brugge W	2	5	2	+3	6
4	Standard Liege W	2	2	3	-1	3
5	RAAL La Louviere W	2	1	1	0	3
6	Zulte-Waregem W	2	1	3	-2	0
7	Gent W	2	1	8	-7	0
8	Genk W	2	0	4	-4	1