AI correctly predicted the RAAL La Louviere W win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 RAAL La Louviere W RAAL La Louviere W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louviere W | 40.9% | 50.7% | -9.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 22.7% | +6.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Gent W | 29.7% | 26.6% | +3.1 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates RAAL La Louviere W's win probability at 50.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (RAAL La Louviere W win 3–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on RAAL La Louviere W. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced RAAL La Louviere W higher (50.7% vs model 40.9%, 9.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (RAAL La Louviere W win 3–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · RAAL La Louviere W 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Gent W 29.6%
- xG · RAAL La Louviere W 1.42 — Gent W 1.18
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · RAAL La Louviere W 1.75 · Draw 3.91 · Gent W 3.33
- Implied 1X2 · RAAL La Louviere W 50.7% · Draw 22.7% · Gent W 26.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · RAAL La Louviere W 1.75 · Draw 3.91 · Gent W 3.33
- Implied 1X2 · RAAL La Louviere W 50.7% · Draw 22.7% · Gent W 26.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result RAAL La Louviere W win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Super League Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anderlecht W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Club Brugge W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | OH Leuven W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | RAAL La Louviere W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Genk W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Standard Liege W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Zulte-Waregem W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 8 | Gent W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OH Leuven W | 3 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 7 |
| 2 | Anderlecht W | 3 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Club Brugge W | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | RAAL La Louviere W | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gent W | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
| 6 | Genk W | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 7 | Standard Liege W | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
| 8 | Zulte-Waregem W | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
