OH Leuven W vs Gent W Statistics & Analysis

OH Leuven W

Sep 06, 2026 - 15:00

6 1.60

1 1.00

xG Accuracy: 30%

Gent W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 OH Leuven W OH Leuven W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 6-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6363510

Closing Odds 1.08

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result OH Leuven W win · OH Leuven W 6–1 Gent W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Gent W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
OH Leuven W (1X2)	49.8	83.0	-33.2
Draw (1X2)	28.1	10.1	+18.0
Gent W (1X2)	22.1	6.9	+15.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	66.9	-18.7
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	33.1	+18.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.1%. The difference — about 18.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
OH Leuven W (1X2)	1.08	1.08
Draw (1X2)	8.89	8.89
Gent W (1X2)	13.0	13.0
Over 2.5 goals	1.36	1.36
Under 2.5 goals	2.75	2.75

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours OH Leuven W; market prices OH Leuven W instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: OH Leuven W 1.60 xG vs Gent W 1.00 → OH Leuven W 49.8%
Market: OH Leuven W ~83.0% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.0% · No 48.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Anderlecht W	2	2	0	0	6
2	Club Brugge W	2	2	0	0	6
3	OH Leuven W	2	1	1	0	4
4	RAAL La Louviere W	2	1	0	1	3
5	Standard Liege W	2	1	0	1	3
6	Genk W	2	0	1	1	1
7	Zulte-Waregem W	2	0	0	2	0
8	Gent W	2	0	0	2	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Anderlecht W	2	6	0	+6	6
2	OH Leuven W	2	6	1	+5	4
3	Club Brugge W	2	5	2	+3	6
4	Standard Liege W	2	2	3	-1	3
5	RAAL La Louviere W	2	1	1	0	3
6	Zulte-Waregem W	2	1	3	-2	0
7	Gent W	2	1	8	-7	0
8	Genk W	2	0	4	-4	1