Statistics / Football / Scotland. Premiership / Motherwell vs Celtic

Motherwell vs Celtic Statistics & Analysis

Motherwell Motherwell
Oct 11, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.04
2 1.94
xG Accuracy: 74%
Celtic Celtic
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Celtic Celtic ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 1-3 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13194815

Closing Odds 1.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Celtic win · Motherwell 0–2 Celtic
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Motherwell (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 2.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Motherwell (1X2) 18.9 17.9 +1.0
Draw (1X2) 23.3 20.7 +2.6
Celtic (1X2) 57.8 61.4 -3.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 23.3% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.7%. The difference — about 2.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 → roobet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Motherwell (1X2) 5.0 5.2 -0.5
Draw (1X2) 4.5 4.5 +0.2
Celtic (1X2) 1.51 1.52 +0.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premiership
  • Fixture: Motherwell vs Celtic
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 18.9% · Draw 23.3% · Away 57.8%
  • xG (showing): Motherwell 1.04 — Celtic 1.94 (total xG ≈ 2.98)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 42.8% · Implied: 35.0% · Probability edge: +7.8 pts · Est. EV: +17.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premiership Premiership — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Celtic 7 6 0 1 18
2 Rangers 7 5 1 1 16
3 Heart Of Midlothian 7 4 1 2 13
4 Dundee 7 3 1 3 10
5 ST Mirren 7 3 1 3 10
6 ST Johnstone 7 2 2 3 8
7 Aberdeen 7 2 2 3 8
8 Dundee Utd 7 2 2 3 8
9 Motherwell 7 2 2 3 8
10 Hibernian 7 2 1 4 7
11 Falkirk 7 1 3 3 6
12 Kilmarnock 7 1 2 4 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Celtic 7 14 4 +10 18
2 Heart Of Midlothian 7 14 8 +6 13
3 Dundee 7 9 7 +2 10
4 ST Johnstone 7 9 10 -1 8
5 Dundee Utd 7 9 11 -2 8
6 Motherwell 7 9 11 -2 8
7 Rangers 7 8 4 +4 16
8 ST Mirren 7 8 9 -1 10
9 Hibernian 7 8 11 -3 7
10 Aberdeen 7 7 8 -1 8
11 Falkirk 7 6 9 -3 6
12 Kilmarnock 7 6 15 -9 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Celtic 7 13.9 3.0 +10.9 18
2 Heart Of Midlothian 7 10.6 5.3 +5.3 13
3 Rangers 7 6.8 5.0 +1.8 16
4 ST Johnstone 7 7.8 6.8 +1.0 8
5 Motherwell 7 8.3 7.7 +0.6 8
6 Dundee Utd 7 8.7 9.2 -0.5 8
7 Hibernian 7 8.6 9.1 -0.5 7
8 ST Mirren 7 7.0 8.2 -1.2 10
9 Aberdeen 7 4.7 6.5 -1.8 8
10 Falkirk 7 3.6 6.7 -3.1 6
11 Dundee 7 7.0 10.7 -3.7 10
12 Kilmarnock 7 4.3 13.4 -9.1 5
Premiership Scotland. Premiership Predictions