Statistics / Football / Switzerland. Super League / FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne

FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne Statistics & Analysis

FC Basel 1893 FC Basel 1893
Aug 01, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.58
1 1.11
xG Accuracy: 63%
Lausanne Lausanne
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Basel 1893 Lausanne ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 04:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1819912

Closing Odds 3.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Lausanne win · FC Basel 1893 0–1 Lausanne
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Basel 1893 (1X2) 46.7 50.0 -3.3
Draw (1X2) 28.1 24.4 +3.7
Lausanne (1X2) 25.2 25.6 -0.5
Over 2.5 goals 50.4 61.5 -11.1
Under 2.5 goals 49.6 38.5 +11.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 49.6% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.5%. The difference — about 11.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Basel 1893 (1X2) 1.93 1.93 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.95 3.95 0.0
Lausanne (1X2) 3.76 3.76 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.57 1.57 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.51 2.51 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.7% · Draw 28.1% · Away 25.2%
  • xG (showing): FC Basel 1893 1.58 — Lausanne 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.69)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.6% · Implied: 38.1% · Probability edge: +11.5 pts · Est. EV: +26.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for FC Basel 1893 & Lausanne!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Lugano 7 6 1 0 19
2 BSC Young Boys 8 4 4 0 16
3 FC Sion 7 5 0 2 15
4 FC Basel 1893 7 3 1 3 10
5 FC ST. Gallen 7 3 1 3 10
6 FC Luzern 7 2 3 2 9
7 Grasshoppers 7 2 2 3 8
8 FC Thun 7 2 1 4 7
9 FC Zurich 7 2 1 4 7
10 FC Vaduz 7 2 0 5 6
11 Lausanne 7 1 3 3 6
12 Servette FC 6 1 1 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 BSC Young Boys 8 28 16 +12 16
2 FC Lugano 7 19 6 +13 19
3 FC Sion 7 17 11 +6 15
4 FC Vaduz 7 16 17 -1 6
5 FC Basel 1893 7 12 12 0 10
6 FC ST. Gallen 7 12 14 -2 10
7 FC Thun 7 11 18 -7 7
8 FC Zurich 7 11 18 -7 7
9 FC Luzern 7 10 13 -3 9
10 Grasshoppers 7 10 14 -4 8
11 Lausanne 7 7 10 -3 6
12 Servette FC 6 4 8 -4 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC ST. Gallen 7 13.1 8.8 +4.3 10
2 FC Sion 7 12.0 7.9 +4.1 15
3 BSC Young Boys 8 10.9 6.8 +4.1 16
4 FC Lugano 7 9.0 5.6 +3.4 19
5 Servette FC 6 7.0 6.7 +0.3 4
6 FC Basel 1893 7 7.0 6.8 +0.2 10
7 Grasshoppers 7 8.8 9.1 -0.3 8
8 Lausanne 7 4.3 5.8 -1.5 6
9 FC Zurich 7 6.4 8.3 -1.9 7
10 FC Luzern 7 6.7 9.7 -3.0 9
11 FC Vaduz 7 8.4 12.1 -3.7 6
12 FC Thun 7 6.7 12.7 -6.0 7
Super League Switzerland. Super League Predictions