Predictions / Football / Switzerland. Super League / FC Vaduz vs FC Thun

Prediction Audit: FC Vaduz vs FC Thun Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Vaduz FC Vaduz
Sep 20, 2026 - 12:00
1 2.07
2 1.88
xG Accuracy: 72%
FC Thun FC Thun

The model missed the final outcome (FC Thun win 1–2).

The model had projected FC Vaduz at 42.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Vaduz FC Thun ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +1.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC Vaduz 42.3% 43.0% -0.6 pp Aligned
Draw 22.7% 21.6% +1.1 pp Aligned
FC Thun 35.0% 35.4% -0.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was FC Thun win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.95) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FC Vaduz; match finished FC Thun

Market lesson

The full-time result was FC Thun win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 19:16 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC Vaduz 42.4% · Draw 22.7% · FC Thun 34.9%
    • xG · FC Vaduz 2.07 — FC Thun 1.88
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC Vaduz 2.25 · Draw 4.47 · FC Thun 2.73
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Vaduz 43.0% · Draw 21.6% · FC Thun 35.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FC Vaduz 2.25 · Draw 4.47 · FC Thun 2.73
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Vaduz 43.0% · Draw 21.6% · FC Thun 35.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FC Thun win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 72/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (53%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 94/100
Betting Confidence 75/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8665457

Closing Odds 4.47
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FC Thun win · FC Vaduz 1–2 FC Thun
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: FC Vaduz vs FC Thun
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): FC Vaduz 2.07 — FC Thun 1.88 (total xG ≈ 3.95)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Lugano 9 8 1 0 25
2 BSC Young Boys 9 5 4 0 19
3 FC Sion 9 6 1 2 19
4 FC Basel 1893 9 4 1 4 13
5 FC ST. Gallen 9 4 1 4 13
6 FC Luzern 9 3 3 3 12
7 FC Zurich 9 3 2 4 11
8 Servette FC 9 3 1 5 10
9 FC Thun 9 3 1 5 10
10 Grasshoppers 9 2 2 5 8
11 FC Vaduz 9 2 0 7 6
12 Lausanne 9 1 3 5 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 BSC Young Boys 9 31 18 +13 19
2 FC Lugano 9 27 7 +20 25
3 FC Sion 9 23 14 +9 19
4 FC Vaduz 9 18 21 -3 6
5 FC Basel 1893 9 17 17 0 13
6 FC Luzern 9 17 18 -1 12
7 FC ST. Gallen 9 16 19 -3 13
8 FC Thun 9 15 23 -8 10
9 FC Zurich 9 14 20 -6 11
10 Grasshoppers 9 13 24 -11 8
11 Servette FC 9 11 13 -2 10
12 Lausanne 9 7 15 -8 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC ST. Gallen 9 13.1 8.8 +4.3 13
2 FC Sion 9 12.0 7.9 +4.1 19
3 BSC Young Boys 9 10.9 6.8 +4.1 19
4 FC Lugano 9 9.0 5.6 +3.4 25
5 Servette FC 9 7.0 6.7 +0.3 10
6 FC Basel 1893 9 7.0 6.8 +0.2 13
7 Grasshoppers 9 8.8 9.1 -0.3 8
8 Lausanne 9 4.3 5.8 -1.5 6
9 FC Zurich 9 6.4 8.3 -1.9 11
10 FC Luzern 9 6.7 9.7 -3.0 12
11 FC Vaduz 9 8.4 12.1 -3.7 6
12 FC Thun 9 6.7 12.7 -6.0 10