Statistics / Football / France. Ligue 1 / Estac Troyes vs Marseille

Estac Troyes vs Marseille Statistics & Analysis

Estac Troyes Estac Troyes
Oct 11, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.59
2 1.61
xG Accuracy: 58%
Marseille Marseille
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Marseille Marseille ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13235048

Closing Odds 3.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Marseille win · Estac Troyes 0–2 Marseille
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Estac Troyes (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Estac Troyes (1X2) by about 7.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Estac Troyes (1X2) 33.4 26.3 +7.1
Draw (1X2) 26.2 26.3 -0.1
Marseille (1X2) 40.3 47.4 -7.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Estac Troyes (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.3%. The difference — about 7.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Estac Troyes (1X2) 3.6 3.6 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.6 3.6 0.0
Marseille (1X2) 2.0 2.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Marseille
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 26.2% · Away 40.3%
  • xG (showing): Estac Troyes 1.59 — Marseille 1.61 (total xG ≈ 3.2)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 62.0% · Implied: 57.7% · Probability edge: +4.3 pts · Est. EV: +6.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 65.0% · No 34.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 10
6 Paris Saint Germain 5 2 2 1 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 6
11 Stade Brestois 29 5 1 2 2 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 4
16 Estac Troyes 5 1 1 3 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lyon 5 10 2 +8 11
2 Strasbourg 5 10 10 0 7
3 Le Mans 5 9 9 0 6
4 Lens 5 9 9 0 4
5 Monaco 5 8 3 +5 13
6 Paris FC 5 8 3 +5 11
7 Lille 5 8 4 +4 10
8 Paris Saint Germain 5 8 7 +1 8
9 Rennes 5 8 9 -1 10
10 Stade Brestois 29 5 7 8 -1 5
11 Marseille 5 7 8 -1 3
12 Toulouse 5 7 9 -2 5
13 Auxerre 5 7 12 -5 6
14 Angers 5 6 5 +1 7
15 Lorient 5 5 6 -1 5
16 Le Havre 5 4 7 -3 2
17 Estac Troyes 5 4 11 -7 4
18 Nice 5 3 6 -3 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Stade Brestois 29 5 8.3 3.3 +5.0 5
2 Lens 5 8.7 4.5 +4.2 4
3 Paris Saint Germain 5 7.5 3.6 +3.9 8
4 Paris FC 5 4.5 1.6 +2.9 11
5 Marseille 5 4.5 2.8 +1.7 3
6 Toulouse 5 5.2 4.2 +1.0 5
7 Monaco 5 4.1 3.3 +0.8 13
8 Estac Troyes 5 6.0 6.2 -0.2 4
9 Rennes 5 6.3 6.7 -0.4 10
10 Lille 5 3.7 4.6 -0.9 10
11 Lorient 5 2.6 3.5 -0.9 5
12 Angers 5 5.1 6.4 -1.3 7
13 Nice 5 2.8 4.2 -1.4 5
14 Lyon 5 2.9 4.7 -1.8 11
15 Le Havre 5 2.6 4.4 -1.8 2
16 Le Mans 5 5.2 8.6 -3.4 6
17 Strasbourg 5 5.4 9.1 -3.7 7
18 Auxerre 5 4.8 8.7 -3.9 6
Ligue 1 France. Ligue 1 Predictions