Statistics / Football / France. Ligue 1 / Rennes vs Auxerre

Rennes vs Auxerre Statistics & Analysis

Rennes Rennes
Oct 11, 2026 - 15:15
4 2.32
1 1.45
xG Accuracy: 56%
Auxerre Auxerre
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rennes Rennes ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-2, 2-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13227592

Closing Odds 7.0
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Rennes win · Rennes 4–1 Auxerre
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Auxerre (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Auxerre (1X2) by about 4.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Rennes (1X2) 60.9 65.5 -4.6
Draw (1X2) 20.8 21.0 -0.2
Auxerre (1X2) 18.3 13.5 +4.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 18.3% on Auxerre (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.5%. The difference — about 4.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Rennes (1X2) 1.44 1.44 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.5 4.5 0.0
Auxerre (1X2) 7.0 7.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: Rennes vs Auxerre
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 15:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 60.9% · Draw 20.8% · Away 18.3%
  • xG (showing): Rennes 2.32 — Auxerre 1.45 (total xG ≈ 3.77)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 70.0% · Implied: 57.6% · Probability edge: +12.4 pts · Est. EV: +16.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 10
6 Paris Saint Germain 5 2 2 1 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 6
11 Stade Brestois 29 5 1 2 2 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 4
16 Estac Troyes 5 1 1 3 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lyon 5 10 2 +8 11
2 Strasbourg 5 10 10 0 7
3 Le Mans 5 9 9 0 6
4 Lens 5 9 9 0 4
5 Monaco 5 8 3 +5 13
6 Paris FC 5 8 3 +5 11
7 Lille 5 8 4 +4 10
8 Paris Saint Germain 5 8 7 +1 8
9 Rennes 5 8 9 -1 10
10 Stade Brestois 29 5 7 8 -1 5
11 Marseille 5 7 8 -1 3
12 Toulouse 5 7 9 -2 5
13 Auxerre 5 7 12 -5 6
14 Angers 5 6 5 +1 7
15 Lorient 5 5 6 -1 5
16 Le Havre 5 4 7 -3 2
17 Estac Troyes 5 4 11 -7 4
18 Nice 5 3 6 -3 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Stade Brestois 29 5 8.3 3.3 +5.0 5
2 Lens 5 8.7 4.5 +4.2 4
3 Paris Saint Germain 5 7.5 3.6 +3.9 8
4 Paris FC 5 4.5 1.6 +2.9 11
5 Marseille 5 3.1 1.7 +1.4 3
6 Toulouse 5 5.2 4.2 +1.0 5
7 Monaco 5 4.1 3.3 +0.8 13
8 Estac Troyes 5 4.9 4.8 +0.1 4
9 Rennes 5 5.9 6.4 -0.5 10
10 Lorient 5 2.6 3.5 -0.9 5
11 Lille 5 3.6 4.6 -1.0 10
12 Angers 5 5.1 6.4 -1.3 7
13 Nice 5 2.8 4.2 -1.4 5
14 Lyon 5 2.9 4.7 -1.8 11
15 Le Havre 5 2.6 4.4 -1.8 2
16 Le Mans 5 5.2 8.6 -3.4 6
17 Strasbourg 5 5.4 9.1 -3.7 7
18 Auxerre 5 4.6 8.3 -3.7 6
Ligue 1 France. Ligue 1 Predictions