Statistics / Football / France. Ligue 1 / Monaco vs Toulouse

Monaco vs Toulouse Statistics & Analysis

Monaco Monaco
Oct 10, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.32
2 1.04
xG Accuracy: 64%
Toulouse Toulouse
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Monaco Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 04:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13249992

Closing Odds 1.65
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Monaco 2–2 Toulouse
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.76 percentage points on Monaco (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Toulouse (1X2) by about 4.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Monaco (1X2) 49.0 57.7 -8.8
Draw (1X2) 27.4 23.2 +4.1
Toulouse (1X2) 23.7 19.1 +4.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 23.7% on Toulouse (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.1%. The difference — about 4.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Monaco (1X2) 1.6 1.65 -1.8
Draw (1X2) 4.1 4.1 +0.0
Toulouse (1X2) 5.5 5.0 +1.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: Monaco vs Toulouse
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 49.0% · Draw 27.4% · Away 23.7%
  • xG (showing): Monaco 1.32 — Toulouse 1.04 (total xG ≈ 2.36)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 58.0% · Implied: 39.6% · Probability edge: +18.4 pts · Est. EV: +43.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.1% · No 50.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Monaco & Toulouse!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 10
6 Paris Saint Germain 5 2 2 1 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 6
11 Stade Brestois 29 5 1 2 2 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 4
16 Estac Troyes 5 1 1 3 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lyon 5 10 2 +8 11
2 Strasbourg 5 10 10 0 7
3 Le Mans 5 9 9 0 6
4 Lens 5 9 9 0 4
5 Monaco 5 8 3 +5 13
6 Paris FC 5 8 3 +5 11
7 Lille 5 8 4 +4 10
8 Paris Saint Germain 5 8 7 +1 8
9 Rennes 5 8 9 -1 10
10 Stade Brestois 29 5 7 8 -1 5
11 Marseille 5 7 8 -1 3
12 Toulouse 5 7 9 -2 5
13 Auxerre 5 7 12 -5 6
14 Angers 5 6 5 +1 7
15 Lorient 5 5 6 -1 5
16 Le Havre 5 4 7 -3 2
17 Estac Troyes 5 4 11 -7 4
18 Nice 5 3 6 -3 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Stade Brestois 29 5 8.3 3.3 +5.0 5
2 Lens 5 8.7 4.5 +4.2 4
3 Paris Saint Germain 5 7.5 3.6 +3.9 8
4 Paris FC 5 4.5 1.6 +2.9 11
5 Marseille 5 3.1 1.7 +1.4 3
6 Toulouse 5 5.2 4.2 +1.0 5
7 Monaco 5 4.1 3.3 +0.8 13
8 Estac Troyes 5 4.9 4.8 +0.1 4
9 Lorient 5 2.6 3.5 -0.9 5
10 Lille 5 3.6 4.6 -1.0 10
11 Rennes 5 3.7 4.9 -1.2 10
12 Angers 5 5.1 6.4 -1.3 7
13 Lyon 5 2.9 4.7 -1.8 11
14 Le Havre 5 2.6 4.4 -1.8 2
15 Nice 5 1.5 3.6 -2.1 5
16 Strasbourg 5 4.8 7.7 -2.9 7
17 Auxerre 5 3.1 6.1 -3.0 6
18 Le Mans 5 5.2 8.6 -3.4 6
Ligue 1 France. Ligue 1 Predictions