Statistics / Football / France. Ligue 1 / Lens vs Lyon

Lens vs Lyon Statistics & Analysis

Lens Lens
Oct 09, 2026 - 18:45
2 2.28
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 85%
Lyon Lyon
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lens Lens ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12706450

Closing Odds 2.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Lens win · Lens 2–1 Lyon
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Lens (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Lens (1X2) by about 10.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lens (1X2) 48.8 38.3 +10.4
Draw (1X2) 24.4 25.5 -1.2
Lyon (1X2) 26.9 36.1 -9.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.8% on Lens (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 38.3%. The difference — about 10.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: stake com

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Lens (1X2) 2.5 2.5 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.75 3.75 0.0
Lyon (1X2) 2.65 2.65 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: Lens vs Lyon
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 48.8% · Draw 24.4% · Away 26.9%
  • xG (showing): Lens 2.28 — Lyon 1.31 (total xG ≈ 3.59)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 69.5% · Implied: 62.2% · Probability edge: +7.3 pts · Est. EV: +7.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.6% · No 33.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 10
6 Paris Saint Germain 5 2 2 1 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 6
11 Stade Brestois 29 5 1 2 2 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 4
16 Estac Troyes 5 1 1 3 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lyon 5 10 2 +8 11
2 Strasbourg 5 10 10 0 7
3 Le Mans 5 9 9 0 6
4 Lens 5 9 9 0 4
5 Monaco 5 8 3 +5 13
6 Paris FC 5 8 3 +5 11
7 Lille 5 8 4 +4 10
8 Paris Saint Germain 5 8 7 +1 8
9 Rennes 5 8 9 -1 10
10 Stade Brestois 29 5 7 8 -1 5
11 Marseille 5 7 8 -1 3
12 Toulouse 5 7 9 -2 5
13 Auxerre 5 7 12 -5 6
14 Angers 5 6 5 +1 7
15 Lorient 5 5 6 -1 5
16 Le Havre 5 4 7 -3 2
17 Estac Troyes 5 4 11 -7 4
18 Nice 5 3 6 -3 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lens 5 8.8 4.5 +4.3 4
2 Stade Brestois 29 5 4.4 1.8 +2.6 5
3 Paris FC 5 3.5 0.9 +2.6 11
4 Marseille 5 3.1 1.7 +1.4 3
5 Angers 5 3.6 2.5 +1.1 7
6 Monaco 5 2.9 1.8 +1.1 13
7 Paris Saint Germain 5 3.2 2.2 +1.0 8
8 Toulouse 5 3.8 2.9 +0.9 5
9 Estac Troyes 5 4.9 4.8 +0.1 4
10 Lorient 5 2.0 2.5 -0.5 5
11 Le Mans 5 3.7 4.3 -0.6 6
12 Lille 5 2.3 3.3 -1.0 10
13 Rennes 5 3.7 4.9 -1.2 10
14 Lyon 5 2.9 4.7 -1.8 11
15 Le Havre 5 1.3 3.1 -1.8 2
16 Nice 5 1.5 3.6 -2.1 5
17 Strasbourg 5 4.8 7.7 -2.9 7
18 Auxerre 5 3.1 6.1 -3.0 6
Ligue 1 France. Ligue 1 Predictions