Statistics / Football / Netherlands. Eredivisie / Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard

Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard Statistics & Analysis

Willem II Willem II
Sep 19, 2026 - 19:00
0 1.94
1 1.49
xG Accuracy: 51%
Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Willem II Fortuna Sittard ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8708470

Closing Odds 2.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fortuna Sittard win · Willem II 0–1 Fortuna Sittard
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Willem II (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Willem II (1X2) by about 8.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Willem II (1X2) 45.0 36.8 +8.3
Draw (1X2) 24.8 25.9 -1.1
Fortuna Sittard (1X2) 30.1 37.4 -7.2
Over 2.5 goals 66.6 59.7 +6.9
Under 2.5 goals 33.4 40.3 -6.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 45.0% on Willem II (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 36.8%. The difference — about 8.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Willem II (1X2) 2.63 2.63 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.74 3.74 0.0
Fortuna Sittard (1X2) 2.59 2.59 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.62 1.62 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.4 2.4 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Eredivisie
  • Fixture: Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.1% · Draw 24.8% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Willem II 1.94 — Fortuna Sittard 1.49 (total xG ≈ 3.43)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 66.6% · Implied: 60.4% · Probability edge: +6.2 pts · Est. EV: +6.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 67.5% · No 32.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Eredivisie Eredivisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 AZ Alkmaar 7 6 1 0 19
2 Feyenoord 7 5 2 0 17
3 PSV Eindhoven 7 5 1 1 16
4 Twente 7 5 1 1 16
5 Ajax 7 4 2 1 14
6 Fortuna Sittard 7 4 1 2 13
7 Excelsior 7 3 2 2 11
8 Groningen 7 3 2 2 11
9 GO Ahead Eagles 7 2 4 1 10
10 Heerenveen 7 2 3 2 9
11 NEC Nijmegen 7 2 2 3 8
12 Sparta Rotterdam 7 1 2 4 5
13 Telstar 7 1 2 4 5
14 Cambuur 7 1 2 4 5
15 Utrecht 7 1 2 4 5
16 PEC Zwolle 7 1 1 5 4
17 ADO Den Haag 7 0 2 5 2
18 Willem II 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Feyenoord 7 25 7 +18 17
2 PSV Eindhoven 7 24 10 +14 16
3 Ajax 7 21 9 +12 14
4 AZ Alkmaar 7 18 6 +12 19
5 GO Ahead Eagles 7 16 14 +2 10
6 Twente 7 15 7 +8 16
7 Excelsior 7 15 9 +6 11
8 Groningen 7 15 13 +2 11
9 Fortuna Sittard 7 13 14 -1 13
10 NEC Nijmegen 7 12 13 -1 8
11 Heerenveen 7 11 9 +2 9
12 Utrecht 7 11 24 -13 5
13 Sparta Rotterdam 7 10 17 -7 5
14 Cambuur 7 10 19 -9 5
15 ADO Den Haag 7 7 17 -10 2
16 PEC Zwolle 7 6 20 -14 4
17 Willem II 7 6 20 -14 2
18 Telstar 7 5 12 -7 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 PSV Eindhoven 7 12.0 2.7 +9.3 16
2 Feyenoord 7 11.3 3.8 +7.5 17
3 AZ Alkmaar 7 12.4 5.5 +6.9 19
4 Twente 7 5.6 1.5 +4.1 16
5 Ajax 7 5.7 3.1 +2.6 14
6 NEC Nijmegen 7 6.9 4.9 +2.0 8
7 Excelsior 7 4.8 3.9 +0.9 11
8 GO Ahead Eagles 7 6.7 7.7 -1.0 10
9 Telstar 7 6.1 7.1 -1.0 5
10 Groningen 7 7.3 8.6 -1.3 11
11 Heerenveen 7 5.3 7.3 -2.0 9
12 Willem II 7 4.6 6.7 -2.1 2
13 Sparta Rotterdam 7 5.8 8.0 -2.2 5
14 PEC Zwolle 7 4.1 6.4 -2.3 4
15 Utrecht 7 5.3 8.2 -2.9 5
16 Cambuur 7 5.8 11.2 -5.4 5
17 ADO Den Haag 7 3.2 9.3 -6.1 2
18 Fortuna Sittard 7 3.7 10.7 -7.0 13