Jong PSV vs Jong AZ Statistics & Analysis

Jong PSV

Sep 14, 2026 - 18:00

1 1.39

1 1.40

xG Accuracy: 80%

Jong AZ

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Jong AZ Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7573243

Closing Odds 4.23

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Jong PSV 1–1 Jong AZ

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 21.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Jong PSV (1X2)	35.6	37.6	-2.0
Draw (1X2)	28.4	22.5	+5.9
Jong AZ (1X2)	36.0	39.9	-3.9
Over 2.5 goals	52.8	74.5	-21.6
Under 2.5 goals	47.2	25.6	+21.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 47.2% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 25.6%. The difference — about 21.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Jong PSV (1X2)	2.53	2.53
Draw (1X2)	4.23	4.23
Jong AZ (1X2)	2.39	2.39
Over 2.5 goals	1.27	1.27
Under 2.5 goals	3.7	3.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Eerste Divisie
Fixture: Jong PSV vs Jong AZ
Kickoff: 2026-09-14 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 28.4% · Away 36.0%
xG (showing): Jong PSV 1.39 — Jong AZ 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.79)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 47.2% · Implied: 24.5% · Probability edge: +22.7 pts · Est. EV: +88.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 58.1% · No 41.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Heracles	7	6	0	1	18
2	Almere City FC	7	5	1	1	16
3	VVV Venlo	7	5	0	2	15
4	Waalwijk	7	3	4	0	13
5	Vitesse	7	4	1	2	13
6	MVV	7	4	1	2	13
7	Jong AZ	9	4	1	4	13
8	Roda	7	3	3	1	12
9	Emmen	7	4	0	3	12
10	Jong PSV	9	3	3	3	12
11	FC Eindhoven	7	3	1	3	10
12	FC Volendam	7	3	0	4	9
13	Helmond Sport	7	2	2	3	8
14	Jong Ajax	9	2	2	5	8
15	NAC Breda	6	2	1	3	7
16	Den Bosch	7	2	1	4	7
17	Jong Utrecht	9	2	1	6	7
18	FC OSS	7	2	0	5	6
19	De Graafschap	6	1	1	4	4
20	Dordrecht	7	1	1	5	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Heracles	7	24	10	+14	18
2	Jong AZ	9	22	17	+5	13
3	VVV Venlo	7	19	11	+8	15
4	Waalwijk	7	18	9	+9	13
5	FC Volendam	7	17	14	+3	9
6	Emmen	7	17	17	0	12
7	Almere City FC	7	16	4	+12	16
8	Jong Utrecht	9	15	21	-6	7
9	Jong PSV	9	14	16	-2	12
10	Vitesse	7	13	9	+4	13
11	Helmond Sport	7	13	12	+1	8
12	Jong Ajax	9	13	22	-9	8
13	Den Bosch	7	12	16	-4	7
14	FC Eindhoven	7	11	13	-2	10
15	NAC Breda	6	11	14	-3	7
16	MVV	7	10	15	-5	13
17	Dordrecht	7	9	21	-12	4
18	FC OSS	7	8	12	-4	6
19	Roda	7	7	5	+2	12
20	De Graafschap	6	7	18	-11	4

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Volendam	7	9.6	5.1	+4.5	9
2	Heracles	7	10.1	6.0	+4.1	18
3	Emmen	7	9.2	6.2	+3.0	12
4	NAC Breda	6	9.8	6.9	+2.9	7
5	MVV	7	6.7	3.8	+2.9	13
6	Jong PSV	9	8.5	5.7	+2.8	12
7	Den Bosch	7	9.6	7.0	+2.6	7
8	Vitesse	7	8.0	6.8	+1.2	13
9	Jong AZ	9	6.9	5.7	+1.2	13
10	Almere City FC	7	7.2	6.1	+1.1	16
11	Roda	7	8.1	7.2	+0.9	12
12	Waalwijk	7	4.8	4.6	+0.2	13
13	FC OSS	7	5.3	7.3	-2.0	6
14	De Graafschap	6	5.4	7.6	-2.2	4
15	Jong Ajax	9	8.4	10.8	-2.4	8
16	VVV Venlo	7	5.7	8.9	-3.2	15
17	Helmond Sport	7	2.6	6.2	-3.6	8
18	Jong Utrecht	9	5.4	9.6	-4.2	7
19	FC Eindhoven	7	3.9	8.2	-4.3	10
20	Dordrecht	7	5.0	10.7	-5.7	4