Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eerste Divisie / De Graafschap vs Den Bosch

Prediction Audit: De Graafschap vs Den Bosch Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

De Graafschap De Graafschap
Sep 27, 2026 - 12:30
1 1.60
0 2.04
xG Accuracy: 48%
Den Bosch Den Bosch

The model missed the final outcome (De Graafschap win 1–0).

The model had projected Den Bosch at 47.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Den Bosch De Graafschap ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Den Bosch considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Den Bosch +13.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
De Graafschap 29.4% 42.1% -12.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 23.5% 24.7% -1.1 pp Aligned
Den Bosch 47.0% 33.2% +13.8 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Den Bosch's win probability at 47.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.2%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was De Graafschap win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Den Bosch.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Den Bosch; match finished De Graafschap
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Den Bosch by 13.8 percentage points (33.1% vs model 47.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · De Graafschap 29.4% · Draw 23.6% · Den Bosch 47.0%
    • xG · De Graafschap 1.60 — Den Bosch 2.04
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · De Graafschap 2.26 · Draw 3.86 · Den Bosch 2.87
    • Implied 1X2 · De Graafschap 42.1% · Draw 24.7% · Den Bosch 33.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · De Graafschap 2.26 · Draw 3.86 · Den Bosch 2.87
    • Implied 1X2 · De Graafschap 42.1% · Draw 24.7% · Den Bosch 33.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result De Graafschap win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (51%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100
Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10088216

Closing Odds 2.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result De Graafschap win · De Graafschap 1–0 Den Bosch
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Eerste Divisie
  • Fixture: De Graafschap vs Den Bosch
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.4% · Draw 23.6% · Away 47.0%
  • xG (showing): De Graafschap 1.6 — Den Bosch 2.04 (total xG ≈ 3.64)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Den Bosch
  • Model: 47.0% · Implied: 33.2% · Probability edge: +13.8 pts · Est. EV: +9.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 70.5% · No 29.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.7%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie Eerste Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Heracles 8 7 0 1 21
2 Almere City FC 8 5 1 2 16
3 MVV 8 5 1 2 16
4 VVV Venlo 8 5 0 3 15
5 Roda 8 4 3 1 15
6 Emmen 8 5 0 3 15
7 Waalwijk 8 3 4 1 13
8 Vitesse 8 4 1 3 13
9 NAC Breda 8 4 1 3 13
10 Jong AZ 9 4 1 4 13
11 FC Volendam 8 4 0 4 12
12 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 12
13 FC Eindhoven 8 3 1 4 10
14 Helmond Sport 8 2 2 4 8
15 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 8
16 Den Bosch 7 2 1 4 7
17 Dordrecht 8 2 1 5 7
18 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 7
19 FC OSS 8 2 0 6 6
20 De Graafschap 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Heracles 8 26 10 +16 21
2 Jong AZ 9 22 17 +5 13
3 VVV Venlo 8 21 14 +7 15
4 FC Volendam 8 20 16 +4 12
5 Almere City FC 8 18 7 +11 16
6 Waalwijk 8 18 11 +7 13
7 Emmen 8 18 17 +1 15
8 NAC Breda 8 17 17 0 13
9 Jong Utrecht 9 15 21 -6 7
10 Jong PSV 9 14 16 -2 12
11 Vitesse 8 13 11 +2 13
12 Helmond Sport 8 13 14 -1 8
13 FC Eindhoven 8 13 17 -4 10
14 Jong Ajax 9 13 22 -9 8
15 MVV 8 12 15 -3 16
16 Den Bosch 7 12 16 -4 7
17 Dordrecht 8 12 23 -11 7
18 Roda 8 9 5 +4 15
19 FC OSS 8 8 13 -5 6
20 De Graafschap 7 8 20 -12 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Volendam 8 9.6 5.1 +4.5 12
2 Heracles 8 10.1 6.0 +4.1 21
3 Emmen 8 9.2 6.2 +3.0 15
4 NAC Breda 8 9.8 6.9 +2.9 13
5 MVV 8 6.7 3.8 +2.9 16
6 Jong PSV 9 8.5 5.7 +2.8 12
7 Den Bosch 7 9.6 7.0 +2.6 7
8 Vitesse 8 8.0 6.8 +1.2 13
9 Jong AZ 9 6.9 5.7 +1.2 13
10 Almere City FC 8 7.2 6.1 +1.1 16
11 Roda 8 8.1 7.2 +0.9 15
12 Waalwijk 8 4.8 4.6 +0.2 13
13 FC OSS 8 5.3 7.3 -2.0 6
14 De Graafschap 7 5.4 7.6 -2.2 4
15 Jong Ajax 9 8.4 10.8 -2.4 8
16 VVV Venlo 8 5.7 8.9 -3.2 15
17 Helmond Sport 8 2.6 6.2 -3.6 8
18 Jong Utrecht 9 5.4 9.6 -4.2 7
19 FC Eindhoven 8 3.9 8.2 -4.3 10
20 Dordrecht 8 5.0 10.7 -5.7 7
Eerste Divisie Netherlands. Eerste Divisie Predictions