Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga MX / Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas

Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas Statistics & Analysis

Atlas Atlas
Oct 11, 2026 - 01:00
1 0.76
1 1.56
xG Accuracy: 80%
Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Guadalajara Chivas Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13184262

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Atlas 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga MX
  • Fixture: Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 19.2% · Draw 28.2% · Away 52.5%
  • xG (showing): Atlas 0.76 — Guadalajara Chivas 1.56 (total xG ≈ 2.32)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 56.4% · Implied: 43.4% · Probability edge: +13.0 pts · Est. EV: +24.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga MX Liga MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Toluca 10 6 2 2 20
2 Club America 9 6 2 1 20
3 Guadalajara Chivas 10 5 3 2 18
4 Club Queretaro 9 5 2 2 17
5 Leon 10 5 2 3 17
6 Atlas 10 5 2 3 17
7 Cruz Azul 10 5 1 4 16
8 Club Tijuana 9 4 2 3 14
9 Puebla 10 4 2 4 14
10 Monterrey 9 4 1 4 13
11 Pachuca 10 3 3 4 12
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 3 3 4 12
13 Atletico San Luis 10 3 3 4 12
14 Atlante FC 10 2 5 3 11
15 Tigres UANL 10 2 4 4 10
16 Santos Laguna 10 3 1 6 10
17 Necaxa 10 2 2 6 8
18 FC Juarez 10 1 0 9 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toluca 10 23 12 +11 20
2 Club America 9 21 10 +11 20
3 Cruz Azul 10 19 18 +1 16
4 Guadalajara Chivas 10 17 10 +7 18
5 Monterrey 9 16 14 +2 13
6 Atlas 10 16 17 -1 17
7 Pachuca 10 15 11 +4 12
8 Leon 10 14 11 +3 17
9 Club Tijuana 9 14 13 +1 14
10 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 14 16 -2 12
11 Atletico San Luis 10 14 18 -4 12
12 Club Queretaro 9 13 8 +5 17
13 Atlante FC 10 12 15 -3 11
14 Necaxa 10 12 20 -8 8
15 Puebla 10 11 12 -1 14
16 Tigres UANL 10 10 13 -3 10
17 Santos Laguna 10 10 15 -5 10
18 FC Juarez 10 7 25 -18 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Cruz Azul 10 14.1 8.8 +5.3 16
2 Club Tijuana 9 9.5 4.6 +4.9 14
3 Club America 9 11.0 6.5 +4.5 20
4 Tigres UANL 10 11.5 8.6 +2.9 10
5 Guadalajara Chivas 10 10.2 7.5 +2.7 18
6 Monterrey 9 10.2 7.5 +2.7 13
7 Necaxa 10 10.0 7.3 +2.7 8
8 Toluca 10 10.2 7.9 +2.3 20
9 Santos Laguna 10 12.6 10.4 +2.2 10
10 Club Queretaro 9 10.2 9.6 +0.6 17
11 Leon 10 10.6 10.1 +0.5 17
12 Puebla 10 8.0 10.8 -2.8 14
13 Atlas 10 8.4 11.6 -3.2 17
14 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 10 7.7 10.9 -3.2 12
15 Pachuca 10 8.5 12.5 -4.0 12
16 Atlante FC 10 7.1 11.8 -4.7 11
17 Atletico San Luis 10 8.6 13.6 -5.0 12
18 FC Juarez 10 6.0 14.7 -8.7 3
Liga MX Mexico. Liga MX Predictions