FUS Rabat vs Maghreb Fès Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: Botola Pro
• Fixture: FUS Rabat vs Maghreb Fès
• Kickoff: 2026-06-12 15:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 31.7% · Draw 33.7% · Away 34.6%
• xG (showing): FUS Rabat 1.04 — Maghreb Fès 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.17)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
• Model: 36.9% · Implied: 33.3% · Probability edge: +3.6 pts · Est. EV: +7.8%
• BTTS (model): Yes 45.5% · No 54.5%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Primary pick from the decision engine: Over 2.5 goals.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

June 13, 2026 (UTC)