Orsomarso vs Depor FC Statistics & Analysis

Orsomarso

Sep 14, 2026 - 22:45

0 1.34

2 1.26

xG Accuracy: 56%

Depor FC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Orsomarso Depor FC ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7574293

Closing Odds 1.76

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Depor FC win · Orsomarso 0–2 Depor FC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Depor FC (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Depor FC (1X2) by about 13.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Orsomarso (1X2)	37.0	52.7	-15.6
Draw (1X2)	29.6	27.6	+2.0
Depor FC (1X2)	33.4	19.7	+13.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	42.5	+5.7
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	57.5	-5.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Depor FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.7%. The difference — about 13.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Orsomarso (1X2)	1.76	1.76
Draw (1X2)	3.36	3.36
Depor FC (1X2)	4.7	4.7
Over 2.5 goals	2.22	2.22
Under 2.5 goals	1.64	1.64

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera B
Fixture: Orsomarso vs Depor FC
Kickoff: 2026-09-14 22:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Orsomarso 1.34 — Depor FC 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Primera B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Real Cartagena	31	15	8	8	53
2	Internacional Palmira	29	15	8	6	53
3	Quindio	29	14	9	6	51
4	Envigado	30	14	8	8	50
5	Union Magdalena	28	13	6	9	45
6	Tigres FC	29	10	8	11	38
7	Patriotas	23	9	7	7	34
8	Barranquilla	28	9	7	12	34
9	Bogota FC	29	8	10	11	34
10	Ind. Yumbo	22	8	9	5	33
11	Real Soacha	23	6	9	8	27
12	Orsomarso	22	6	7	9	25
13	Depor FC	23	5	8	10	23
14	Popayan	22	4	9	9	21
15	Leones FC	23	4	7	12	19
16	Real Santander	23	3	8	12	17

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Real Cartagena	31	50	35	+15	53
2	Envigado	30	40	28	+12	50
3	Internacional Palmira	29	38	27	+11	53
4	Union Magdalena	28	38	27	+11	45
5	Barranquilla	28	35	37	-2	34
6	Quindio	29	30	18	+12	51
7	Patriotas	23	28	27	+1	34
8	Tigres FC	29	27	25	+2	38
9	Real Soacha	23	27	27	0	27
10	Depor FC	23	24	32	-8	23
11	Popayan	22	23	29	-6	21
12	Bogota FC	29	23	30	-7	34
13	Ind. Yumbo	22	21	16	+5	33
14	Real Santander	23	20	37	-17	17
15	Orsomarso	22	17	23	-6	25
16	Leones FC	23	14	37	-23	19