Predictions / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Real Cartagena vs Envigado

Prediction Audit: Real Cartagena vs Envigado Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Real Cartagena Real Cartagena
Sep 22, 2026 - 00:30
0 1.38
0 1.22
xG Accuracy: 49%
Envigado Envigado

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Real Cartagena at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Real Cartagena Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Real Cartagena higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Real Cartagena -14.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Real Cartagena 39.0% 53.9% -14.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 26.2% +3.4 pp Aligned
Envigado 31.5% 20.0% +11.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Real Cartagena's win probability at 53.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 14.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Real Cartagena than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Real Cartagena by 14.9 percentage points (53.9% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 22, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Real Cartagena 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Envigado 31.5%
    • xG · Real Cartagena 1.38 — Envigado 1.22
  2. Sep 21, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Real Cartagena 1.72 · Draw 3.54 · Envigado 4.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Real Cartagena 53.9% · Draw 26.2% · Envigado 20.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 22, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Real Cartagena 1.72 · Draw 3.54 · Envigado 4.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Real Cartagena 53.9% · Draw 26.2% · Envigado 20.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 22, 2026 · 00:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 25/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8986468

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Real Cartagena 0–0 Envigado
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Real Cartagena vs Envigado
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-22 00:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Real Cartagena 1.38 — Envigado 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 47.9% · Probability edge: +6.5 pts · Est. EV: +6.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Internacional Palmira 30 16 8 6 56
2 Real Cartagena 32 15 9 8 54
3 Envigado 32 15 9 8 54
4 Quindio 30 14 9 7 51
5 Union Magdalena 29 14 6 9 48
6 Tigres FC 31 11 9 11 42
7 Bogota FC 30 9 10 11 37
8 Ind. Yumbo 24 9 9 6 36
9 Patriotas 25 9 7 9 34
10 Barranquilla 31 9 7 15 34
11 Real Soacha 25 8 9 8 33
12 Popayan 24 6 9 9 27
13 Orsomarso 23 6 8 9 26
14 Depor FC 25 5 8 12 23
15 Real Santander 25 3 10 12 19
16 Leones FC 24 4 7 13 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 32 50 35 +15 54
2 Envigado 32 43 28 +15 54
3 Union Magdalena 29 40 28 +12 48
4 Internacional Palmira 30 39 27 +12 56
5 Barranquilla 31 36 42 -6 34
6 Quindio 30 31 21 +10 51
7 Tigres FC 31 31 26 +5 42
8 Real Soacha 25 31 28 +3 33
9 Patriotas 25 30 33 -3 34
10 Popayan 24 29 31 -2 27
11 Bogota FC 30 25 31 -6 37
12 Depor FC 25 24 38 -14 23
13 Ind. Yumbo 24 23 17 +6 36
14 Real Santander 25 21 38 -17 19
15 Orsomarso 23 17 23 -6 26
16 Leones FC 24 15 39 -24 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions