Statistics / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Patriotas vs Orsomarso

Patriotas vs Orsomarso Statistics & Analysis

Patriotas Patriotas
Aug 20, 2026 - 01:10
1 1.43
1 1.17
xG Accuracy: 85%
Orsomarso Orsomarso
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Patriotas Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 02:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3021387

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Patriotas 1–1 Orsomarso
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Patriotas vs Orsomarso
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-11 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Patriotas 1.43 — Orsomarso 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.1% · Implied: 44.9% · Probability edge: +9.2 pts · Est. EV: +13.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Cartagena 31 15 8 8 53
2 Internacional Palmira 29 15 8 6 53
3 Quindio 29 14 9 6 51
4 Envigado 30 14 8 8 50
5 Union Magdalena 28 13 6 9 45
6 Tigres FC 29 10 8 11 38
7 Patriotas 23 9 7 7 34
8 Barranquilla 28 9 7 12 34
9 Bogota FC 29 8 10 11 34
10 Ind. Yumbo 22 8 9 5 33
11 Real Soacha 23 6 9 8 27
12 Orsomarso 22 6 7 9 25
13 Depor FC 23 5 8 10 23
14 Popayan 22 4 9 9 21
15 Leones FC 23 4 7 12 19
16 Real Santander 23 3 8 12 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 31 50 35 +15 53
2 Envigado 30 40 28 +12 50
3 Internacional Palmira 29 38 27 +11 53
4 Union Magdalena 28 38 27 +11 45
5 Barranquilla 28 35 37 -2 34
6 Quindio 29 30 18 +12 51
7 Patriotas 23 28 27 +1 34
8 Tigres FC 29 27 25 +2 38
9 Real Soacha 23 27 27 0 27
10 Depor FC 23 24 32 -8 23
11 Popayan 22 23 29 -6 21
12 Bogota FC 29 23 30 -7 34
13 Ind. Yumbo 22 21 16 +5 33
14 Real Santander 23 20 37 -17 17
15 Orsomarso 22 17 23 -6 25
16 Leones FC 23 14 37 -23 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions