Statistics / Football / Colombia. Primera B / Popayan vs Tigres FC

Popayan vs Tigres FC Statistics & Analysis

Popayan Popayan
Aug 01, 2026 - 21:00
0 1.37
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 49%
Tigres FC Tigres FC
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Popayan Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 06:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1827273

Closing Odds 1.91
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Popayan 0–0 Tigres FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Tigres FC (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Tigres FC (1X2) by about 9.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Popayan (1X2) 38.5 48.5 -10.1
Draw (1X2) 29.6 28.6 +1.0
Tigres FC (1X2) 31.9 22.8 +9.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 41.4 +6.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 58.6 -6.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.9% on Tigres FC (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.8%. The difference — about 9.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Popayan (1X2) 1.91 1.91 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.24 3.24 0.0
Tigres FC (1X2) 4.06 4.06 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.28 2.28 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.61 1.61 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Popayan vs Tigres FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Popayan 1.37 — Tigres FC 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 46.4% · Probability edge: +8.0 pts · Est. EV: +9.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Cartagena 31 15 8 8 53
2 Internacional Palmira 29 15 8 6 53
3 Quindio 29 14 9 6 51
4 Envigado 30 14 8 8 50
5 Union Magdalena 28 13 6 9 45
6 Tigres FC 29 10 8 11 38
7 Patriotas 23 9 7 7 34
8 Barranquilla 28 9 7 12 34
9 Bogota FC 29 8 10 11 34
10 Ind. Yumbo 22 8 9 5 33
11 Real Soacha 23 6 9 8 27
12 Orsomarso 22 6 7 9 25
13 Depor FC 23 5 8 10 23
14 Popayan 22 4 9 9 21
15 Leones FC 23 4 7 12 19
16 Real Santander 23 3 8 12 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Cartagena 31 50 35 +15 53
2 Envigado 30 40 28 +12 50
3 Internacional Palmira 29 38 27 +11 53
4 Union Magdalena 28 38 27 +11 45
5 Barranquilla 28 35 37 -2 34
6 Quindio 29 30 18 +12 51
7 Patriotas 23 28 27 +1 34
8 Tigres FC 29 27 25 +2 38
9 Real Soacha 23 27 27 0 27
10 Depor FC 23 24 32 -8 23
11 Popayan 22 23 29 -6 21
12 Bogota FC 29 23 30 -7 34
13 Ind. Yumbo 22 21 16 +5 33
14 Real Santander 23 20 37 -17 17
15 Orsomarso 22 17 23 -6 25
16 Leones FC 23 14 37 -23 19
Primera B Colombia. Primera B Predictions