Flamengo SP U20 vs Guarani U20 Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: Paulista - U20
• Fixture: Flamengo SP U20 vs Guarani U20
• Kickoff: 2026-06-12 18:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 43.3%
• xG (showing): Flamengo SP U20 1.13 — Guarani U20 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
• Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
• Model: 53.7% · Implied: 49.3% · Probability edge: +4.4 pts · Est. EV: +4.7%
• BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Strongest +EV line among tracked markets (not shown as a full Primary under current engine thresholds): BTTS Yes.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

June 13, 2026 (UTC)