EPS vs Honka Statistics & Analysis

EPS

Aug 01, 2026 - 14:00

3 1.31

2 1.29

xG Accuracy: 52%

Honka

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 EPS EPS ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 03:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1808554

Closing Odds 1.32

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result EPS win · EPS 3–2 Honka

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices EPS (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on EPS (1X2) by about 21.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
EPS (1X2)	35.6	13.7	+21.9
Draw (1X2)	29.7	17.6	+12.1
Honka (1X2)	34.7	68.7	-34.0
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	67.8	-19.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	32.2	+19.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.6% on EPS (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.7%. The difference — about 21.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE10)
EPS (1X2)	6.61	6.61
Draw (1X2)	5.15	5.15
Honka (1X2)	1.32	1.32
Over 2.5 goals	1.36	1.36
Under 2.5 goals	2.86	2.86

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours EPS; market prices Honka instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: EPS 1.31 xG vs Honka 1.29 → EPS 35.6%
Market: Honka ~13.7% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Honka	18	13	4	1	43
2	ÅIFK	18	12	3	3	39
3	EPS	18	10	2	6	32
4	HJS Akatemia	18	9	4	5	31
5	Ilves II	18	8	6	4	30
6	P-Iirot	18	8	3	7	27
7	GrIFK	18	7	3	8	24
8	EBK	18	4	3	11	15
9	Musa	18	3	3	12	12
10	NJS	18	0	1	17	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Honka	18	56	17	+39	43
2	Ilves II	18	51	30	+21	30
3	EPS	18	39	26	+13	32
4	ÅIFK	18	38	18	+20	39
5	HJS Akatemia	18	30	24	+6	31
6	P-Iirot	18	30	25	+5	27
7	EBK	18	27	43	-16	15
8	GrIFK	18	23	31	-8	24
9	Musa	18	19	55	-36	12
10	NJS	18	10	54	-44	1