The model missed the final outcome (Musa win 3–2).
The model had projected NJS at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 NJS Musa ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Musa | 33.8% | 72.1% | -38.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 14.9% | +14.8 pp | Model Edge |
| NJS | 36.6% | 13.0% | +23.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Musa's win probability at 72.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 38.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Musa win 3–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on NJS by 38.3 percentage points (74.9% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Musa 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · NJS 36.6%
- xG · Musa 1.27 — NJS 1.33
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Musa 1.24 · Draw 6.00 · NJS 6.85
- Implied 1X2 · Musa 72.1% · Draw 14.9% · NJS 13.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Musa 1.24 · Draw 6.00 · NJS 6.85
- Implied 1X2 · Musa 72.1% · Draw 14.9% · NJS 13.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Musa win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (38 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Kakkonen - Lohko B — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Honka | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 43 |
| 2 | ÅIFK | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 39 |
| 3 | EPS | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 32 |
| 4 | HJS Akatemia | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 5 | Ilves II | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 6 | P-Iirot | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 7 | GrIFK | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | EBK | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 9 | Musa | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| 10 | NJS | 18 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Honka | 18 | 56 | 17 | +39 | 43 |
| 2 | Ilves II | 18 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 | EPS | 18 | 39 | 26 | +13 | 32 |
| 4 | ÅIFK | 18 | 38 | 18 | +20 | 39 |
| 5 | HJS Akatemia | 18 | 30 | 24 | +6 | 31 |
| 6 | P-Iirot | 18 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 | EBK | 18 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 15 |
| 8 | GrIFK | 18 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 24 |
| 9 | Musa | 18 | 19 | 55 | -36 | 12 |
| 10 | NJS | 18 | 10 | 54 | -44 | 1 |
