Statistics / Football / Ethiopia. Premier League / Sheger Ketema vs Mekelakeya

Sheger Ketema vs Mekelakeya Statistics & Analysis

Sheger Ketema Sheger Ketema
Jun 28, 2026 - 13:00
2 0.82
0 0.87
xG Accuracy: 57%
Mekelakeya Mekelakeya
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mekelakeya Sheger Ketema ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1660334

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Sheger Ketema win · Sheger Ketema 2–0 Mekelakeya
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Sheger Ketema (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 8.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Sheger Ketema (1X2) 27.9 22.4 +5.4
Draw (1X2) 35.9 30.7 +5.2
Mekelakeya (1X2) 36.3 46.9 -10.6
Over 2.5 goals 24.0 32.0 -8.0
Under 2.5 goals 76.0 68.0 +8.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 76.0% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 68.0%. The difference — about 8.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Sheger Ketema (1X2) 4.03 4.03 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.95 2.95 0.0
Mekelakeya (1X2) 1.93 1.93 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.89 2.89 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.36 1.36 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Sheger Ketema vs Mekelakeya
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-28 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.9% · Draw 35.9% · Away 36.3%
  • xG (showing): Sheger Ketema 0.82 — Mekelakeya 0.87 (total xG ≈ 1.69)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 76.0% · Implied: 66.4% · Probability edge: +9.6 pts · Est. EV: +8.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sidama Bunna 38 19 11 8 68
2 Negelle Arsi 38 15 15 8 60
3 Mekelakeya 38 14 15 9 57
4 Fasil Ketema 38 14 13 11 55
5 Mebrat Hayl 38 13 15 10 54
6 Kedus Giorgis 38 14 12 12 54
7 Welayta Dicha 38 11 18 9 51
8 Ethiopia Bunna 38 13 12 13 51
9 Awassa Kenema 38 12 14 12 50
10 Sheger Ketema 38 11 17 10 50
11 Bahardar 38 9 21 8 48
12 Hadiya Hosaena 38 11 15 12 48
13 Ethiopia Nigd Bank 38 11 14 13 47
14 Ethiopian Medhin 38 10 16 12 46
15 Adama Kenema 38 10 16 12 46
16 Welwalo Adigrat Uni 38 10 16 12 46
17 Suhul Shire 38 9 15 14 42
18 Dire Dawa Kenema 38 9 15 14 42
19 Wolkite Ketema 0 0 0 0 0
19 Mekelle Kenema 38 8 16 14 40
20 Arba Minch Kenema 38 7 14 17 35
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank 38 45 45 0 47
2 Mekelakeya 38 44 31 +13 57
3 Sidama Bunna 38 43 23 +20 68
4 Ethiopia Bunna 38 40 39 +1 51
5 Negelle Arsi 38 37 30 +7 60
6 Welayta Dicha 38 37 31 +6 51
7 Awassa Kenema 38 37 32 +5 50
8 Adama Kenema 38 35 39 -4 46
9 Sheger Ketema 38 34 31 +3 50
10 Kedus Giorgis 38 33 31 +2 54
11 Mebrat Hayl 38 32 26 +6 54
12 Welwalo Adigrat Uni 38 32 36 -4 46
13 Hadiya Hosaena 38 31 35 -4 48
14 Ethiopian Medhin 38 30 31 -1 46
15 Arba Minch Kenema 38 30 46 -16 35
16 Fasil Ketema 38 28 28 0 55
17 Bahardar 38 28 28 0 48
18 Dire Dawa Kenema 38 27 41 -14 42
19 Mekelle Kenema 38 26 38 -12 40
20 Suhul Shire 38 24 32 -8 42
21 Wolkite Ketema 0 0 0 0 0