Hørsholm-Usserød vs Næsby Statistics & Analysis

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

• League: 3. Division
• Fixture: Hørsholm-Usserød vs Næsby
• Kickoff: 2026-06-13 12:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 40.3% · Draw 27.2% · Away 32.5%
• xG (showing): Hørsholm-Usserød 1.58 — Næsby 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.98)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
• Model: 42.8% · Implied: 30.0% · Probability edge: +12.8 pts · Est. EV: +41.2%
• BTTS (model): Yes 61.3% · No 38.7%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Primary pick from the decision engine: Under 2.5 goals.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

When several markets sit near +EV, keep stakes small — correlation means edges do not add cleanly.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

June 13, 2026 (UTC)