Boca Unidos vs San Martin Formosa Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: Torneo Federal A
• Fixture: Boca Unidos vs San Martin Formosa
• Kickoff: 2026-06-14 18:30:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 29.9% · Draw 29.1% · Away 41.0%
• xG (showing): Boca Unidos 1.22 — San Martin Formosa 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
• Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
• Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.9% · Probability edge: +2.9 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
• BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Top tracked +EV leg right now (hero card, non-primary grading): Under 2.5 goals.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

Only one modest +EV edge is highlighted here; size cautiously and re-check if odds move.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

June 15, 2026 (UTC)