Jonava vs Atmosfera Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: 1 Lyga
• Fixture: Jonava vs Atmosfera
• Kickoff: 2026-06-12 16:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
• xG (showing): Jonava 1.2 — Atmosfera 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
• Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +19.7%
• BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Primary pick from the decision engine: Under 2.5 goals.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

Edges shrink quickly if prices move; always re-check the number on your book.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

June 13, 2026 (UTC)