Statistics / Football / China. League One / Shenzhen Juniors vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Shenzhen Juniors vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring Statistics & Analysis

Shenzhen Juniors Shenzhen Juniors
Jul 12, 2026 - 11:00
3 1.22
3 1.38
xG Accuracy: 39%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring Heilongjiang Lava Spring
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Shenzhen Juniors Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1649160

Closing Odds 1.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Shenzhen Juniors 3–3 Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Heilongjiang Lava Spring (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Heilongjiang Lava Spring (1X2) by about 12.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Shenzhen Juniors (1X2) 37.0 53.3 -16.3
Draw (1X2) 29.5 26.1 +3.4
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (1X2) 33.5 20.5 +12.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 49.2 -1.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 50.8 +1.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.5% on Heilongjiang Lava Spring (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.5%. The difference — about 12.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Shenzhen Juniors (1X2) 1.74 1.74 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.55 3.55 0.0
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (1X2) 4.52 4.52 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.93 1.93 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.87 1.87 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: League One
  • Fixture: Shenzhen Juniors vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-12 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 33.5%
  • xG (showing): Shenzhen Juniors 1.22 — Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
League One League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 23 15 6 2 51
2 Shenzhen Juniors 22 12 6 4 42
3 Guangxi Hengchen 22 11 6 5 39
4 Nantong Zhiyun 21 9 9 3 36
5 Yanbian Longding 23 9 8 6 35
6 Shaanxi Union 22 9 5 8 32
7 Ningbo Professional 22 9 5 8 29
8 Changchun Yatai 22 10 2 10 28
9 Hebei Kungfu 22 7 6 9 27
10 Dalian Huayi 22 6 8 8 26
11 Wuxi Wugou 20 7 5 8 26
12 Suzhou Dongwu 23 7 7 9 25
13 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 23 4 10 9 22
14 Nanjing City 22 5 6 11 21
15 Meizhou Kejia 22 6 3 13 12
16 Dongguan United 23 2 6 15 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 23 46 19 +27 51
2 Shenzhen Juniors 22 38 24 +14 42
3 Guangxi Hengchen 22 38 26 +12 39
4 Changchun Yatai 22 36 37 -1 28
5 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 23 34 45 -11 22
6 Shaanxi Union 22 33 24 +9 32
7 Yanbian Longding 23 32 25 +7 35
8 Wuxi Wugou 20 31 25 +6 26
9 Dalian Huayi 22 29 33 -4 26
10 Nantong Zhiyun 21 28 18 +10 36
11 Ningbo Professional 22 27 28 -1 29
12 Suzhou Dongwu 23 26 31 -5 25
13 Dongguan United 23 23 48 -25 12
14 Meizhou Kejia 22 22 46 -24 12
15 Hebei Kungfu 22 19 24 -5 27
16 Nanjing City 22 19 28 -9 21
League One China. League One Predictions