Predictions / Football / China. League One / Yanbian Longding vs Guangzhou E-Power

Prediction Audit: Yanbian Longding vs Guangzhou E-Power Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding
Sep 18, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.38
2 1.22
xG Accuracy: 73%
Guangzhou E-Power Guangzhou E-Power

The model missed the final outcome (Guangzhou E-Power win 1–2).

The model had projected Yanbian Longding at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Yanbian Longding Guangzhou E-Power ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Guangzhou E-Power higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Guangzhou E-Power -19.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Yanbian Longding 39.0% 23.9% +15.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.5% 25.3% +4.3 pp Aligned
Guangzhou E-Power 31.5% 50.8% -19.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Guangzhou E-Power's win probability at 50.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 19.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Guangzhou E-Power win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Guangzhou E-Power than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Yanbian Longding; match finished Guangzhou E-Power

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Yanbian Longding by 19.4 percentage points (58.4% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 18, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Yanbian Longding 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Guangzhou E-Power 31.5%
    • xG · Yanbian Longding 1.38 — Guangzhou E-Power 1.22
  2. Sep 18, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Yanbian Longding 3.85 · Draw 3.64 · Guangzhou E-Power 1.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Yanbian Longding 23.9% · Draw 25.3% · Guangzhou E-Power 50.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 18, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Yanbian Longding 3.85 · Draw 3.64 · Guangzhou E-Power 1.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Yanbian Longding 23.9% · Draw 25.3% · Guangzhou E-Power 50.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 18, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Guangzhou E-Power win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 1/100
Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8192612

Closing Odds 1.81
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Guangzhou E-Power win · Yanbian Longding 1–2 Guangzhou E-Power
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: League One
  • Fixture: Yanbian Longding vs Guangzhou E-Power
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Yanbian Longding 1.38 — Guangzhou E-Power 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Yanbian Longding
  • Model: 39.0% · Implied: 23.9% · Probability edge: +15.1 pts · Est. EV: +5.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming League One Matches Track Yanbian Longding Next Match Prediction Track Guangzhou E-Power Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Yanbian Longding & Guangzhou E-Power!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
League One League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 16 6 2 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 13 6 5 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 12 8 4 44
4 Nantong Zhiyun 23 10 9 4 39
5 Yanbian Longding 24 9 8 7 35
6 Shaanxi Union 23 9 6 8 33
7 Hebei Kungfu 24 8 7 9 31
8 Wuxi Wugou 23 8 5 10 29
9 Changchun Yatai 23 10 3 10 29
10 Ningbo Professional 23 9 5 9 29
11 Dalian Huayi 23 7 8 8 29
12 Suzhou Dongwu 24 7 8 9 26
13 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 4 11 9 23
14 Nanjing City 24 5 6 13 21
15 Meizhou Kejia 24 7 3 14 15
16 Dongguan United 24 2 7 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 48 20 +28 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 40 26 +14 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 39 25 +14 44
4 Changchun Yatai 23 37 38 -1 29
5 Shaanxi Union 23 35 26 +9 33
6 Wuxi Wugou 23 35 29 +6 29
7 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 35 46 -11 23
8 Yanbian Longding 24 33 27 +6 35
9 Nantong Zhiyun 23 31 20 +11 39
10 Dalian Huayi 23 30 33 -3 29
11 Suzhou Dongwu 24 28 33 -5 26
12 Ningbo Professional 23 27 29 -2 29
13 Meizhou Kejia 24 25 50 -25 15
14 Dongguan United 24 24 49 -25 13
15 Hebei Kungfu 24 22 25 -3 31
16 Nanjing City 24 20 33 -13 21