FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Trakai Statistics & Analysis

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Jun 12, 2026 - 17:00

3 1.51

2 1.09

xG Accuracy: 52%

FK Trakai

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius FK Zalgiris Vilnius ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1523192

Closing Odds 1.15

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result FK Zalgiris Vilnius win · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3–2 FK Trakai

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), FK Trakai (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on FK Trakai (1X2) by about 18.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (1X2)	45.3	80.1	-34.9
Draw (1X2)	28.9	12.2	+16.8
FK Trakai (1X2)	25.8	7.7	+18.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 25.8% on FK Trakai (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 7.7%. The difference — about 18.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (1X2)	1.15	1.15
Draw (1X2)	7.58	7.58
FK Trakai (1X2)	11.96	11.96

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius; market prices FK Zalgiris Vilnius instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.51 xG vs FK Trakai 1.09 → FK Zalgiris Vilnius 45.3%
Market: FK Zalgiris Vilnius ~80.1% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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A Lyga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Suduva Marijampole	27	13	10	4	49
2	Kauno Žalgiris	26	13	9	4	48
3	TransINVEST Vilnius	27	12	6	9	42
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	26	12	5	9	41
5	Banga	27	10	8	9	38
6	Džiugas Telšiai	27	10	8	9	38
7	Panevėžys	28	9	5	14	32
8	Hegelmann Litauen	28	4	13	11	25
9	Šiauliai	28	3	8	17	17
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0	0	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Kauno Žalgiris	26	52	17	+35	48
2	TransINVEST Vilnius	27	40	35	+5	42
3	Suduva Marijampole	27	38	24	+14	49
4	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	26	38	29	+9	41
5	Džiugas Telšiai	27	36	38	-2	38
6	Banga	27	30	28	+2	38
7	Hegelmann Litauen	28	30	47	-17	25
8	Panevėžys	28	29	43	-14	32
9	Šiauliai	28	24	56	-32	17
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0	0	0