Predictions / Football / Lithuania. A Lyga / FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris

Prediction Audit: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FK Zalgiris Vilnius FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Sep 16, 2026 - 15:45
3 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 52%
Kauno Žalgiris Kauno Žalgiris

AI correctly predicted the FK Zalgiris Vilnius win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius FK Zalgiris Vilnius ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kauno Žalgiris higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kauno Žalgiris -10.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 36.1% 28.2% +7.9 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.0% +2.7 pp Aligned
Kauno Žalgiris 34.2% 44.8% -10.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Kauno Žalgiris's win probability at 44.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (FK Zalgiris Vilnius win 3–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Kauno Žalgiris than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced FK Zalgiris Vilnius higher (46.7% vs model 36.1%, 10.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (FK Zalgiris Vilnius win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 16, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Kauno Žalgiris 34.2%
    • xG · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.32 — Kauno Žalgiris 1.28
  2. Sep 16, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3.29 · Draw 3.44 · Kauno Žalgiris 2.07
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28.2% · Draw 27.0% · Kauno Žalgiris 44.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 16, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3.29 · Draw 3.44 · Kauno Žalgiris 2.07
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28.2% · Draw 27.0% · Kauno Žalgiris 44.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 16, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FK Zalgiris Vilnius win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1951480

Closing Odds 2.07
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FK Zalgiris Vilnius win · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3–2 Kauno Žalgiris
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: A Lyga
  • Fixture: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 15:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.32 — Kauno Žalgiris 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.1% · Probability edge: +3.7 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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A Lyga A Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 14 9 5 51
2 Suduva Marijampole 28 13 11 4 50
3 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 13 6 9 45
4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 13 5 10 44
5 Banga 28 11 8 9 41
6 Džiugas Telšiai 28 10 8 10 38
7 Panevėžys 28 9 5 14 32
8 Hegelmann Litauen 29 4 14 11 26
9 Šiauliai 29 3 8 18 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kauno Žalgiris 28 56 20 +36 51
2 TransINVEST Vilnius 28 43 35 +8 45
3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius 28 41 34 +7 44
4 Suduva Marijampole 28 39 25 +14 50
5 Džiugas Telšiai 28 36 40 -4 38
6 Banga 28 32 28 +4 41
7 Hegelmann Litauen 29 31 48 -17 26
8 Panevėžys 28 29 43 -14 32
9 Šiauliai 29 24 58 -34 17
10 FK Trakai 0 0 0 0 0