Statistics / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga B / Levadia U19 vs Luunja

Levadia U19 vs Luunja Statistics & Analysis

Levadia U19 Levadia U19
Sep 21, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.21
0 1.39
xG Accuracy: 64%
Luunja Luunja
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Luunja Levadia U19 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8838923

Closing Odds 1.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Levadia U19 win · Levadia U19 1–0 Luunja
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Luunja (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 28.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Levadia U19 (1X2) 31.0 54.3 -23.2
Draw (1X2) 29.5 19.1 +10.4
Luunja (1X2) 39.5 26.6 +12.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 76.6 -28.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 23.4 +28.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 23.4%. The difference — about 28.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Levadia U19 (1X2) 1.67 1.67 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.75 4.75 0.0
Luunja (1X2) 3.4 3.4 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.22 1.22 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 4.0 4.0 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Esiliiga B
  • Fixture: Levadia U19 vs Luunja
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-21 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Levadia U19 1.21 — Luunja 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 23.4% · Probability edge: +28.4 pts · Est. EV: +107.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Esiliiga B Esiliiga B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Narva U21 29 19 3 7 60
2 Levadia U19 30 18 2 10 56
3 Phoenix 30 17 3 10 54
4 Johvi Phoenix 19 11 1 7 34
4 Tartu Kalev 29 15 2 12 47
5 Luunja 30 14 5 11 47
6 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 46
7 Tulevik 29 13 5 11 44
8 JK Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 33
9 Tallinna Kalev II 30 7 5 18 26
10 Legion 29 3 4 22 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 95 62 +33 46
2 Levadia U19 30 75 52 +23 56
3 Tulevik 29 74 60 +14 44
4 Luunja 30 74 63 +11 47
5 Tartu Kalev 29 71 52 +19 47
6 Phoenix 30 71 68 +3 54
7 Narva U21 29 69 35 +34 60
8 Tallinna Kalev II 30 60 77 -17 26
9 Johvi Phoenix 19 49 47 +2 34
10 JK Tabasalu 30 44 81 -37 33
11 Legion 29 28 111 -83 13
Esiliiga B Estonia. Esiliiga B Predictions