Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga B / Tulevik vs Tartu Kalev

Prediction Audit: Tulevik vs Tartu Kalev Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tulevik Tulevik
Sep 26, 2026 - 11:00
6 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 25%
Tartu Kalev Tartu Kalev

The model missed the final outcome (Tulevik win 6–1).

The model had projected Tartu Kalev at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tartu Kalev Tulevik ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 6-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tulevik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tulevik -16.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tulevik 33.8% 50.2% -16.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 20.2% +9.5 pp Model Higher
Tartu Kalev 36.6% 29.6% +7.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Tulevik's win probability at 50.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Tulevik win 6–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Tulevik than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tartu Kalev by 16.4 percentage points (53.0% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tulevik 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Tartu Kalev 36.6%
    • xG · Tulevik 1.27 — Tartu Kalev 1.33
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tulevik 1.77 · Draw 4.41 · Tartu Kalev 3.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Tulevik 50.2% · Draw 20.2% · Tartu Kalev 29.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tulevik 1.77 · Draw 4.41 · Tartu Kalev 3.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Tulevik 50.2% · Draw 20.2% · Tartu Kalev 29.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tulevik win · 6–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 5/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10080022

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tulevik win · Tulevik 6–1 Tartu Kalev
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Esiliiga B
  • Fixture: Tulevik vs Tartu Kalev
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Tulevik 1.27 — Tartu Kalev 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 21.6% · Probability edge: +30.2 pts · Est. EV: +148.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga B Esiliiga B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Narva U21 30 20 3 7 63
2 Levadia U19 30 18 2 10 56
3 Phoenix 30 17 3 10 54
4 Tulevik 30 14 5 11 47
4 Johvi Phoenix 19 11 1 7 34
5 Tartu Kalev 30 15 2 13 47
6 Luunja 30 14 5 11 47
7 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 46
8 JK Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 33
9 Tallinna Kalev II 30 7 5 18 26
10 Legion 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 95 62 +33 46
2 Tulevik 30 80 61 +19 47
3 Levadia U19 30 75 52 +23 56
4 Luunja 30 74 63 +11 47
5 Tartu Kalev 30 72 58 +14 47
6 Narva U21 30 71 36 +35 63
7 Phoenix 30 71 68 +3 54
8 Tallinna Kalev II 30 60 77 -17 26
9 Johvi Phoenix 19 49 47 +2 34
10 JK Tabasalu 30 44 81 -37 33
11 Legion 30 29 113 -84 13
Esiliiga B Estonia. Esiliiga B Predictions