Tulevik vs Levadia U19 Statistics & Analysis

Tulevik

Jun 19, 2026 - 16:30

2 1.31

3 1.29

xG Accuracy: 52%

Levadia U19

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Tulevik Levadia U19 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 13:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3176880

Closing Odds 1.45

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Levadia U19 win · Tulevik 2–3 Levadia U19

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Levadia U19 (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 9.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Tulevik (1X2)	42.8	60.8	-18.0
Draw (1X2)	26.1	16.6	+9.4
Levadia U19 (1X2)	31.2	22.6	+8.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 26.1% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.6%. The difference — about 9.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Tulevik (1X2)	1.45	1.45
Draw (1X2)	5.3	5.3
Levadia U19 (1X2)	3.9	3.9

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Esiliiga B
Fixture: Tulevik vs Levadia U19
Kickoff: 2026-06-19 16:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.8% · Draw 26.1% · Away 31.2%
xG (showing): Tulevik 1.31 — Levadia U19 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 21, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Narva U21	29	19	3	7	60
2	Phoenix	30	17	3	10	54
3	Levadia U19	29	17	2	10	53
4	Johvi Phoenix	19	11	1	7	34
4	Tartu Kalev	29	15	2	12	47
5	Luunja	29	14	5	10	47
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	30	14	4	12	46
7	Tulevik	29	13	5	11	44
8	JK Tabasalu	30	10	3	17	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	30	7	5	18	26
10	Legion	29	3	4	22	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	30	95	62	+33	46
2	Levadia U19	29	74	52	+22	53
3	Tulevik	29	74	60	+14	44
4	Luunja	29	74	62	+12	47
5	Tartu Kalev	29	71	52	+19	47
6	Phoenix	30	71	68	+3	54
7	Narva U21	29	69	35	+34	60
8	Tallinna Kalev II	30	60	77	-17	26
9	Johvi Phoenix	19	49	47	+2	34
10	JK Tabasalu	30	44	81	-37	33
11	Legion	29	28	111	-83	13