Goias vs Avai Statistics & Analysis

Goias

Sep 20, 2026 - 19:00

2 0.74

1 1.09

xG Accuracy: 69%

Avai

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Avai Goias ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8696229

Closing Odds 1.97

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Goias win · Goias 2–1 Avai

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Avai (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Avai (1X2) by about 13.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Goias (1X2)	29.8	48.8	-19.1
Draw (1X2)	34.5	29.1	+5.4
Avai (1X2)	35.7	22.1	+13.6
Over 2.5 goals	27.7	37.6	-9.9
Under 2.5 goals	72.3	62.4	+9.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.7% on Avai (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.1%. The difference — about 13.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Goias (1X2)	1.97	1.97
Draw (1X2)	3.31	3.31
Avai (1X2)	4.35	4.35
Over 2.5 goals	2.56	2.56
Under 2.5 goals	1.54	1.54

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie B
Fixture: Goias vs Avai
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.8% · Draw 34.5% · Away 35.7%
xG (showing): Goias 0.74 — Avai 1.09 (total xG ≈ 1.83)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 72.3% · Implied: 61.6% · Probability edge: +10.7 pts · Est. EV: +12.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 36.4% · No 63.6%
Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (17.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Goias & Avai!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Serie B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vila Nova	30	16	6	8	54
2	Juventude	30	15	8	7	53
3	Fortaleza EC	30	14	10	6	52
4	Novorizontino	30	14	9	7	51
5	Criciuma	30	14	8	8	50
6	Atletico Goianiense	30	13	10	7	49
7	CRB	30	14	6	10	48
8	Operario-PR	30	13	9	8	48
9	Sport Recife	30	11	11	8	44
10	Cuiaba	30	10	13	7	43
11	Goias	30	12	6	12	42
12	São Bernardo	30	11	9	10	42
13	Athletic Club	30	10	12	8	42
14	Nautico Recife	30	11	8	11	41
15	Ceara	30	9	9	12	36
16	Botafogo SP	29	8	8	13	32
17	Avai	30	8	6	16	30
18	Londrina	30	7	7	16	28
19	America Mineiro	30	4	5	21	17
20	Ponte Preta	29	3	4	22	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Novorizontino	30	49	27	+22	51
2	CRB	30	45	41	+4	48
3	Vila Nova	30	43	31	+12	54
4	Operario-PR	30	43	38	+5	48
5	São Bernardo	30	40	31	+9	42
6	Sport Recife	30	40	32	+8	44
7	Londrina	30	39	43	-4	28
8	Nautico Recife	30	38	37	+1	41
9	Atletico Goianiense	30	37	27	+10	49
10	Athletic Club	30	36	33	+3	42
11	Fortaleza EC	30	35	26	+9	52
12	Ceara	30	33	39	-6	36
13	Juventude	30	32	19	+13	53
14	Botafogo SP	29	32	36	-4	32
15	Criciuma	30	31	27	+4	50
16	Cuiaba	30	30	25	+5	43
17	Goias	30	30	36	-6	42
18	Avai	30	30	41	-11	30
19	America Mineiro	30	21	50	-29	17
20	Ponte Preta	29	17	62	-45	13

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Novorizontino	30	17.2	9.2	+8.0	51
2	Fortaleza EC	30	16.8	10.1	+6.7	52
3	Cuiaba	30	12.3	7.0	+5.3	43
4	Atletico Goianiense	30	15.2	11.1	+4.1	49
5	Avai	30	11.9	8.5	+3.4	30
6	Vila Nova	30	13.3	10.1	+3.2	54
7	CRB	30	18.6	15.8	+2.8	48
8	Juventude	30	10.2	8.0	+2.2	53
9	Criciuma	30	10.0	8.1	+1.9	50
10	Sport Recife	30	13.7	12.6	+1.1	44
11	Londrina	30	10.4	9.6	+0.8	28
12	São Bernardo	30	12.6	12.6	0.0	42
13	Botafogo SP	29	13.7	13.8	-0.1	32
14	Nautico Recife	30	15.3	16.1	-0.8	41
15	Goias	30	11.8	13.1	-1.3	42
16	Operario-PR	30	12.8	16.2	-3.4	48
17	Ceara	30	9.1	14.2	-5.1	36
18	America Mineiro	30	11.7	16.9	-5.2	17
19	Athletic Club	30	11.9	19.2	-7.3	42
20	Ponte Preta	29	8.7	24.8	-16.1	13