Vila Nova vs Ceara Statistics & Analysis

Vila Nova

Aug 30, 2026 - 21:30

2 1.50

0 0.87

xG Accuracy: 69%

Ceara

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Vila Nova Vila Nova ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 2-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5305802

Closing Odds 4.59

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Vila Nova win · Vila Nova 2–0 Ceara

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 2.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Vila Nova (1X2)	50.5	49.8	+0.7
Draw (1X2)	29.3	29.3	+0.0
Ceara (1X2)	20.2	20.9	-0.7
Over 2.5 goals	42.2	40.1	+2.0
Under 2.5 goals	57.8	59.9	-2.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 42.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 40.1%. The difference — about 2.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Vila Nova (1X2)	1.93	1.93
Draw (1X2)	3.28	3.28
Ceara (1X2)	4.59	4.59
Over 2.5 goals	2.4	2.4
Under 2.5 goals	1.61	1.61

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Serie B
Fixture: Vila Nova vs Ceara
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 21:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 50.5% · Draw 29.3% · Away 20.2%
xG (showing): Vila Nova 1.5 — Ceara 0.87 (total xG ≈ 2.37)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 42.2% · Implied: 40.3% · Probability edge: +1.9 pts · Est. EV: +3.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 46.7% · No 53.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.0%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vila Nova	30	16	6	8	54
2	Novorizontino	30	14	9	7	51
3	Fortaleza EC	29	14	9	6	51
4	Juventude	29	14	8	7	50
5	Atletico Goianiense	30	13	10	7	49
6	Operario-PR	30	13	9	8	48
7	Criciuma	29	13	8	8	47
8	CRB	29	13	6	10	45
9	Sport Recife	30	11	11	8	44
10	Cuiaba	29	10	13	6	43
11	Goias	30	12	6	12	42
12	São Bernardo	30	11	9	10	42
13	Nautico Recife	30	11	8	11	41
14	Athletic Club	29	10	11	8	41
15	Ceara	30	9	9	12	36
16	Botafogo SP	29	8	8	13	32
17	Avai	29	8	6	15	30
18	Londrina	30	7	7	16	28
19	America Mineiro	29	4	5	20	17
20	Ponte Preta	29	3	4	22	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Novorizontino	30	49	27	+22	51
2	Vila Nova	30	43	31	+12	54
3	Operario-PR	30	43	38	+5	48
4	CRB	29	42	41	+1	45
5	São Bernardo	30	40	31	+9	42
6	Sport Recife	30	40	32	+8	44
7	Londrina	30	39	43	-4	28
8	Nautico Recife	30	38	37	+1	41
9	Atletico Goianiense	30	37	27	+10	49
10	Athletic Club	29	34	31	+3	41
11	Fortaleza EC	29	33	24	+9	51
12	Ceara	30	33	39	-6	36
13	Botafogo SP	29	32	36	-4	32
14	Juventude	29	31	19	+12	50
15	Cuiaba	29	30	22	+8	43
16	Goias	30	30	36	-6	42
17	Avai	29	30	38	-8	30
18	Criciuma	29	28	27	+1	47
19	America Mineiro	29	21	49	-28	17
20	Ponte Preta	29	17	62	-45	13

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Novorizontino	30	17.2	9.2	+8.0	51
2	Fortaleza EC	29	16.8	10.1	+6.7	51
3	Cuiaba	29	12.3	7.0	+5.3	43
4	Atletico Goianiense	30	15.2	11.1	+4.1	49
5	Avai	29	11.9	8.5	+3.4	30
6	Vila Nova	30	13.3	10.1	+3.2	54
7	CRB	29	18.6	15.8	+2.8	45
8	Juventude	29	10.2	8.0	+2.2	50
9	Criciuma	29	10.0	8.1	+1.9	47
10	Sport Recife	30	13.7	12.6	+1.1	44
11	Londrina	30	10.4	9.6	+0.8	28
12	São Bernardo	30	12.6	12.6	0.0	42
13	Botafogo SP	29	13.7	13.8	-0.1	32
14	Nautico Recife	30	15.3	16.1	-0.8	41
15	Goias	30	11.8	13.1	-1.3	42
16	Operario-PR	30	12.8	16.2	-3.4	48
17	Ceara	30	9.1	14.2	-5.1	36
18	America Mineiro	29	11.7	16.9	-5.2	17
19	Athletic Club	29	11.9	19.2	-7.3	41
20	Ponte Preta	29	8.7	24.8	-16.1	13