Statistics / Football / Finland. Ykkönen / TPV vs JJK

TPV vs JJK Statistics & Analysis

TPV TPV
Jul 05, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 64%
JJK JJK
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 TPV TPV ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1545583

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result TPV win · TPV 1–0 JJK
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices TPV (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on TPV (1X2) by about 16.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
TPV (1X2) 37.0 21.1 +16.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 21.4 +8.2
JJK (1X2) 33.4 57.6 -24.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on TPV (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.1%. The difference — about 16.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
TPV (1X2) 4.4 4.4 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.34 4.34 0.0
JJK (1X2) 1.61 1.61 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ykkönen
  • Fixture: TPV vs JJK
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-05 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): TPV 1.34 — JJK 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 29.5% · Probability edge: +22.3 pts · Est. EV: +76.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Ykkönen Ykkönen — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tampere United 22 13 5 4 44
2 Rops 22 11 7 4 40
3 SalPa 22 10 6 6 36
4 PKKU 22 9 8 5 35
5 OLS 22 9 7 6 34
6 FC jazz 22 9 6 7 33
7 JJK 22 8 7 7 31
8 VJS 22 7 10 5 31
9 TPV 22 6 6 10 24
10 Inter Turku II 22 5 5 12 20
11 KuPS Akatemia 22 3 6 13 15
12 KPV-j 22 4 3 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 JJK 22 51 42 +9 31
2 Tampere United 22 47 18 +29 44
3 Rops 22 47 32 +15 40
4 OLS 22 43 35 +8 34
5 SalPa 22 41 35 +6 36
6 PKKU 22 40 30 +10 35
7 VJS 22 38 31 +7 31
8 KuPS Akatemia 22 37 51 -14 15
9 FC jazz 22 32 29 +3 33
10 Inter Turku II 22 32 51 -19 20
11 TPV 22 30 40 -10 24
12 KPV-j 22 24 68 -44 15
Ykkönen Finland. Ykkönen Predictions