Predictions / Football / Finland. Ykkönen / FC jazz vs VJS

Prediction Audit: FC jazz vs VJS Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC jazz FC jazz
Sep 19, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
VJS VJS

The model missed the final outcome (VJS win 0–2).

The model had projected FC jazz at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC jazz VJS ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices VJS higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: VJS -6.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC jazz 36.1% 35.7% +0.4 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 23.8% +5.9 pp Model Higher
VJS 34.2% 40.5% -6.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates VJS's win probability at 40.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was VJS win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on VJS. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FC jazz; match finished VJS
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FC jazz by 6.3 percentage points (42.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC jazz 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · VJS 34.2%
    • xG · FC jazz 1.32 — VJS 1.28
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 11:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC jazz 2.60 · Draw 3.90 · VJS 2.29
    • Implied 1X2 · FC jazz 35.7% · Draw 23.8% · VJS 40.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · FC jazz 2.60 · Draw 3.90 · VJS 2.29
    • Implied 1X2 · FC jazz 35.7% · Draw 23.8% · VJS 40.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result VJS win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8675935

Closing Odds 2.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result VJS win · FC jazz 0–2 VJS
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ykkönen
  • Fixture: FC jazz vs VJS
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): FC jazz 1.32 — VJS 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.3% · Probability edge: +17.5 pts · Est. EV: +49.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Ykkönen Matches Track FC jazz Next Match Prediction Track VJS Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for FC jazz & VJS!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Ykkönen Ykkönen — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tampere United 25 15 5 5 50
2 Rops 25 12 8 5 44
3 SalPa 25 12 6 7 42
4 OLS 25 11 8 6 41
5 VJS 25 10 10 5 40
6 FC jazz 25 11 6 8 39
7 PKKU 25 10 8 7 38
8 JJK 25 8 7 10 31
9 TPV 25 7 6 12 27
10 Inter Turku II 24 6 5 13 23
11 KPV-j 25 5 3 17 18
12 KuPS Akatemia 24 3 6 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tampere United 25 58 26 +32 50
2 JJK 25 55 53 +2 31
3 Rops 25 52 37 +15 44
4 SalPa 25 52 45 +7 42
5 OLS 25 50 37 +13 41
6 PKKU 25 45 37 +8 38
7 VJS 25 44 32 +12 40
8 KuPS Akatemia 24 41 58 -17 15
9 FC jazz 25 38 32 +6 39
10 Inter Turku II 24 36 53 -17 23
11 TPV 25 35 48 -13 27
12 KPV-j 25 27 75 -48 18