Statistics / Football / USA. MLS Next Pro / Atlanta United II vs Chattanooga

Atlanta United II vs Chattanooga Statistics & Analysis

Atlanta United II Atlanta United II
Jun 13, 2026 - 23:00
4 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 23%
Chattanooga Chattanooga
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Atlanta United II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-4 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: MLS Next Pro
  • Fixture: Atlanta United II vs Chattanooga
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.6% · Draw 28.1% · Away 32.2%
  • xG (showing): Atlanta United II 1.32 — Chattanooga 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.2% · Probability edge: +11.6 pts · Est. EV: +24.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary pick from the decision engine: Under 2.5 goals.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

Edges shrink quickly if prices move; always re-check the number on your book.

FAQ

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

June 19, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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MLS Next Pro MLS Next Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Crown Legacy 14 10 0 4 30
1 Houston Dynamo FC II 12 11 0 1 31
2 Columbus Crew II 15 10 0 5 29
2 Austin II 13 10 0 3 31
3 Orlando City II 14 10 0 4 28
3 St. Louis City II 14 10 0 4 29
4 New England II 13 10 0 3 28
4 Portland Timbers II 14 8 0 6 26
5 New York RB II 14 8 0 6 25
5 Ventura County 16 9 0 7 26
6 Chattanooga 14 8 0 6 24
6 The Town 12 7 0 5 22
7 Atlanta United II 13 7 0 6 23
7 Minnesota United II 14 7 0 7 21
8 Toronto II 14 7 0 7 22
8 Real Monarchs 14 8 0 6 21
9 Huntsville City 14 6 0 8 19
9 Los Angeles FC II 13 7 0 6 21
10 Chicago Fire II 13 7 0 6 19
10 North Texas 14 6 0 8 19
11 Philadelphia Union II 14 6 0 8 18
11 Tacoma Defiance 13 5 0 8 14
12 New York City II 12 6 0 6 18
12 Sporting KC II 16 4 0 12 13
13 Connecticut FC 13 6 0 7 16
13 Vancouver Whitecaps II 15 4 0 11 11
14 Carolina Core 14 3 0 11 12
14 Colorado Rapids II 14 1 0 13 6
15 FC Cincinnati II 13 3 0 10 9
16 Inter Miami II 12 1 0 11 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Crown Legacy 14 37 18 +19 30
2 Orlando City II 14 33 26 +7 28
3 Houston Dynamo FC II 12 29 8 +21 31
4 Chattanooga 14 29 25 +4 24
5 Atlanta United II 13 28 19 +9 23
6 Austin II 13 27 10 +17 31
7 New York RB II 14 27 22 +5 25
8 Ventura County 16 27 23 +4 26
9 Huntsville City 14 27 32 -5 19
10 The Town 12 26 12 +14 22
11 St. Louis City II 14 26 18 +8 29
12 Columbus Crew II 15 26 23 +3 29
13 Toronto II 14 24 23 +1 22
14 Real Monarchs 14 24 24 0 21
15 North Texas 14 23 20 +3 19
16 Los Angeles FC II 13 22 25 -3 21
17 Sporting KC II 16 21 42 -21 13
18 Connecticut FC 13 20 24 -4 16
19 Chicago Fire II 13 18 19 -1 19
20 Minnesota United II 14 18 20 -2 21
21 Vancouver Whitecaps II 15 18 33 -15 11
22 New England II 13 17 11 +6 28
23 Portland Timbers II 14 17 19 -2 26
24 Carolina Core 14 17 25 -8 12
25 New York City II 12 16 19 -3 18
26 Philadelphia Union II 14 15 15 0 18
27 Tacoma Defiance 13 13 19 -6 14
28 Inter Miami II 12 13 35 -22 4
29 FC Cincinnati II 13 12 23 -11 9
30 Colorado Rapids II 14 12 30 -18 6
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