Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand / Gute vs Bollstanäs

Gute vs Bollstanäs Statistics & Analysis

Gute Gute
Aug 15, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.25
3 1.35
xG Accuracy: 52%
Bollstanäs Bollstanäs
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bollstanäs Bollstanäs ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3362032

Closing Odds 2.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Bollstanäs win · Gute 2–3 Bollstanäs
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Bollstanäs (1X2), Under 2.5 goals, BTTS No meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Gute (1X2) 32.9 41.0 -8.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 24.4 +5.2
Bollstanäs (1X2) 37.6 34.6 +3.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 65.1 -16.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 34.9 +16.9
BTTS Yes 54.5 66.4 -11.9
BTTS No 45.5 33.6 +11.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.9%. The difference — about 16.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Marathonbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Gute (1X2) 2.19 2.19 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.68 3.68 0.0
Bollstanäs (1X2) 2.6 2.6 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.39 1.39 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.59 2.59 0.0
BTTS Yes 1.37 1.37 0.0
BTTS No 2.71 2.71 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Svealand
  • Fixture: Gute vs Bollstanäs
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Gute 1.25 — Bollstanäs 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 35.2% · Probability edge: +16.6 pts · Est. EV: +39.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Gute & Bollstanäs!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Division 2 - Norra Svealand Division 2 - Norra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skiljebo 22 15 5 2 50
2 Angby 22 13 6 3 45
3 Sunnersta 21 13 5 3 44
4 Enskede 22 13 4 5 43
5 Falu BS 22 12 5 5 41
6 Täby 22 11 5 6 38
7 Gute 22 8 5 9 29
8 Bollstanäs 22 7 7 8 28
9 Franke 21 7 4 10 25
10 Lidingö 22 5 5 12 20
11 Kungsängen 22 3 10 9 19
12 Viggbyholms IK 21 4 4 13 16
13 Korsnäs 22 2 5 15 11
14 Helges 21 2 4 15 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Skiljebo 22 53 24 +29 50
2 Sunnersta 21 49 18 +31 44
3 Angby 22 46 25 +21 45
4 Täby 22 39 24 +15 38
5 Bollstanäs 22 38 42 -4 28
6 Enskede 22 36 23 +13 43
7 Falu BS 22 35 25 +10 41
8 Gute 22 35 32 +3 29
9 Franke 21 34 37 -3 25
10 Lidingö 22 26 42 -16 20
11 Kungsängen 22 24 34 -10 19
12 Korsnäs 22 20 52 -32 11
13 Viggbyholms IK 21 17 40 -23 16
14 Helges 21 17 51 -34 10
Division 2 - Norra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand Predictions