Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand / Falu BS vs Angby

Prediction Audit: Falu BS vs Angby Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Falu BS Falu BS
Sep 27, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.41
3 1.19
xG Accuracy: 52%
⚽
Angby

The model missed the final outcome (Angby win 2–3).

The model had projected Falu BS at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Falu BS Angby ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Falu BS higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Falu BS -9.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Falu BS 40.4% 50.1% -9.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 24.8% +4.7 pp Aligned
Angby 30.1% 25.2% +5.0 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Falu BS's win probability at 50.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 9.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Angby win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Falu BS. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Falu BS by 9.7 percentage points (50.0% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Falu BS 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Angby 30.1%
    • xG · Falu BS 1.41 — Angby 1.19
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Falu BS 1.78 · Draw 3.60 · Angby 3.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Falu BS 50.1% · Draw 24.8% · Angby 25.2%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Falu BS 1.78 · Draw 3.60 · Angby 3.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Falu BS 50.1% · Draw 24.8% · Angby 25.2%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Angby win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 51/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10097645

Closing Odds 1.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Angby win · Falu BS 2–3 Angby
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Svealand
  • Fixture: Falu BS vs Angby
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Falu BS 1.41 — Angby 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Svealand Division 2 - Norra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skiljebo 23 16 5 2 53
2 Sunnersta 23 15 5 3 50
3 Angby 22 13 6 3 45
4 Enskede 22 13 4 5 43
5 Falu BS 22 12 5 5 41
6 Täby 23 11 5 7 38
7 Gute 23 9 5 9 32
8 Bollstanäs 22 7 7 8 28
9 Franke 22 7 4 11 25
10 Lidingö 23 5 5 13 20
11 Kungsängen 22 3 10 9 19
12 Viggbyholms IK 23 5 4 14 19
13 Korsnäs 23 3 5 15 14
14 Helges 23 2 4 17 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sunnersta 23 57 19 +38 50
2 Skiljebo 23 54 24 +30 53
3 Angby 22 46 25 +21 45
4 Täby 23 39 25 +14 38
5 Bollstanäs 22 38 42 -4 28
6 Gute 23 37 33 +4 32
7 Enskede 22 36 23 +13 43
8 Falu BS 22 35 25 +10 41
9 Franke 22 35 39 -4 25
10 Lidingö 23 26 48 -22 20
11 Kungsängen 22 24 34 -10 19
12 Korsnäs 23 24 54 -30 14
13 Viggbyholms IK 23 23 46 -23 19
14 Helges 23 20 57 -37 10
Division 2 - Norra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand Predictions